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Will Bournemouth Equal or Beat Points Record Against Brighton?

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Written by billythekid

Our second league game against Wolves this season turned out to be a game of ‘repeats’. The Cherries took the lead, like they did at Dean Court, they had a player sent off in the second half, the same as at Dean Court, the away side won the game, as happened at Dean Court. Our next game is at home at Dean Court on Sunday at 2 pm, our visitors are Brighton who are managed by Robert De Zerbi. As it stands before the weekend fixtures, AFCB are in 10th place after 34 games on 45 points, one short of equaling our club record in the Premier League of 46 points, set in the 2016-17 season with Eddie Howe in charge. Brighton are in 11th place with 44 points having played one game less.

AFC Bournemouth v Brighton & Hove Albion





Brighton Win

Brighton Win
Last season Brighton finished in sixth position in the Premier League. When Graham Potter left them, the Sussex side after six games had 13 points, which included four wins, and a draw, and were fourth in the table. Robert De Zerbi who took over didn’t have such a good start and his first five games in charge had two draws and three defeats, his sixth game was a win. By the end of the season after 32 games in charge, his side gained 49 points to finish sixth with 62 points. This season the Brighton manager had a better start in their first six games, with five wins and a defeat. Their last game of the six was home against AFCB which Brighton won 3-1.

Since our defeat at the Amex Stadium, Brighton have had a mixed set of results, including 8 defeats out of 15. On their travels, they have beaten Nottingham Forest 2-3 and Sheffield United 0-5. They have drawn both with Everton and Crystal Palace 1-1, and drew with two London clubs, West Ham and Brentford 0-0. In their most recent away game they drew 1-1 with Burnley. Their defeats, which included their heaviest, were against Aston Villa 6-1. Manchester City 2-1, Chelsea 3-2, Arsenal 2-0, Luton Town 4-0, Spurs 2-1, Fulham 3-0 and Liverpool 2-1. Brighton at home have W 4, D 6, lost 2. Their most recent game was against Manchester City, it finished 0-4.

Our last meeting at Dean Court with Brighton was in April 2023. A goal from Evan Ferguson in the first half and a 90th minute injury time goal from Julio Enciso, gave Brighton a 0-2 win.

In all our meetings in the league at home with Brighton, AFCB have W 26, D 17, L 11.
In all competitions, AFCB have W 44, D 29, L 41.

AFCB Team News
Milos Kerkez is suspended. No new news on any injuries since the Wolves game.

AFCB Player To Watch
On a certain website, Marcus Senesi came out top in three of their four categories from the Wolves game. He was their MOM, equal with two others for most shots in the game and made 5 tackles, two more than the next players. At AFCB he is equal top with two other players with 4 assists. He has scored 3 goals, our joint fourth highest scorer. He and Illia Zabarnyi have formed a strong defensive partnership when playing together. Otherwise, up front, we look at Dominic Solanke, Antoine Semenyo, and Justin Kluivert to score our goals.

Brighton Team News
On their injury front, Evan Ferguson, Billy Gilmour, James Milner, Kaoru Mitoma, Jack Hinshelwood, Solly March, Tariq Lamptey and Pervis Estupinan have all been out with various injuries.

Brighton Player To Watch
One of their most consistent players has been Pascal Gross, is in his seventh season with Brighton and is an important player for them. In the league, he has scored 4 goals and is well ahead of any of their other players with 10 assists. Their leading scorer is Joao Pedro with 8 league goals.

The Referee
Paul Tierney is our referee for this game, it will be his third game in charge, all at Dean Court. In the league, he was in charge of our game against Wolves where he showed 8 yellow cards and a red card. Also he took charge of our FA Cup game with Leicester City, during the game he showed 9 yellow cards, those two games are his highest for yellow cards this season so far.

Matt Stevenson added

I’ve looked at the last 4 league games for Brighton. These were two home games (Arsenal and Man City) and away at Brentford and Burnley. Brighton gained 2 points, with Brighton only having a higher xG in the Brentford game. Brighton have scored 1 goal and conceded 8 with xG estimating 3.14 goals with 7.04 conceded.

Goals xG.png

Brighton have had no scorers with the goal against Burnley being an own goal. No player is credited with an assist.

The average positions of the starting line-ups are below. Brighton like to keep possession and this is seen with the clumps of players who play short passes. The games away at Brentford and Burnley are most relevant to our game with the positioning seeming to depend on the opposition as a high line was played against Brentford, but a defenders were left back against Burnley.

Av pos.png

The following graph compares summary stats of Brighton and AFCB over the last 4 games. On the underlying stats AFCB are doing well offensively with more goal attempts, big chances, xG and goals scored, the value that stands out is that Brighton have only created 2 big chances across the last four games. Defensively, whilst Brighton are conceding fewer shots, AFCB have conceded almost half the number of big chances.


Brighton have had more percentage possession at 52%, compared with AFCB’s 43%. Both teams have a relatively high percentage of chances from open play, although Brighton appears susceptible to set pieces conceding about 1 in 3 chances from these.

Your say…


Will really miss Kerkez for this one.

He plays with blood sweat and tears and had one of his best games for us against Wolves.

Will be a huge player for us next season. – To join the conversation, click here.

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