Will AFCB Continue Unbeaten Run Against Luton Town?

Written by billythekid

This date Saturday 9th December 2023 will be one to remember and also entered into the club’s and other record books. It is probably the best result in our club’s history, beating Manchester United convincingly on their own ground by 0-3 for the very first time in 11 league and cup games (though beating Bolton to get promotion to the Premier League is also up there and in the record books).

Our side since losing 6-1 away against Manchester City, have since beaten Newcastle United (H), Sheffield United (A), and drawn at home with Aston Villa, who themselves had won 2 either side of the game at Dean Court. Then AFCB beat Crystal Palace (A) and as mentioned Manchester United (A). The Cherries will be looking to extend their unbeaten run to six games.

Our next game is back at Dean Court on Saturday at 3 pm, it’s also the last home game before Christmas and our visitors are newly promoted Luton Town. Their position in the table at the moment is 18th and one of the relegation spots, shared with fellow promoted clubs Burnley and Sheffield United. The Luton Town manager is Rob Edwards.

Edwards first full-time manager’s job was at his hometown club Telford United. After he left there amongst other appointments, he had a job with the FA as a coach. Then he joined League 2 side Forest Green Rovers, where he had a successful time, getting them promotion at the first attempt. At the end of that season, he left to join Watford in the Championship as their manager, this turned out to be a bad move and he was sacked in September after some poor results.

Two months later he became manager of Luton Town, after Nathan Jones left to take up the manager’s job at Southampton. In his first full season in charge of the Hatters, he won promotion up into the Premier League. Luton Town have had a tough introduction to the Premier League, losing their first two games away from home, Brighton 4-1 and Chelsea 3-0. Other away defeats were at Fulham 1-0, Aston Villa 3-1, Manchester United 1-0 and Brentford 3-1. They have had one win, beating Everton 1-2. The drew 2-2 with Nottingham Forest. At home they have W 1, D 2, L 5.

The last time the Hatters visited Dean Court was in the Championship in the 2021-22 season. Two first half goals from Philip Billing and Dominic Solanke with both assists coming from Ryan Christie gave the Cherries a 2-0 lead at half time. There was only one more goal scored in the game and that also came from an AFCB player, unfortunately, this was an own goal scored by Lloyd Kelly. This win after 9 games took the Cherries to the top of the table, where they finished second at the end of the season.

In all our home league games against Luton Town, AFCB have W 15, D 7, L 7.
In all competitions, AFCB have W 25, D 17, L 22.

AFCB Team News
No reports so far on any new injuries.

AFCB Player To Watch
Dominic Solanke is in top form at the moment and hope to see him add to his tally of 8 goals. In our midfield the partnership of Lewis Cook and Ryan Christie who have been outstanding in recent games.

Luton Town Team News
They have been missing Cauley Woodrow, Dan Potts, Reece Burke and Mads Andersen through injuries. Marvelous Nakamba is suspended. Amongst their summer signings was midfielder Ryan Giles signed from Wolves for a reported club-record fee of £5 million.

Luton Town Player To Watch
After watching his performance against Arsenal and also Manchester City the experience and form in midfield of Ross Barkley has proved a key player for Luton Town. Also Alfie Doughty has been playing well, leads with assists and provided two against Arsenal, he has three for the season. Need to watch the danger of Elijah Adebayo from crosses as he is good in the air and scored headed goals in his last two games, club’s leading scorer with 4 goals.

The Referee
Simon Hooper is in charge of this game. AFCB had him for our away fixture last December at Chelsea, the game finished without any cards being shown.

Matt Stevenson added…

I’ve looked at the last 4 league games for Luton. These were at home to C Palace, Arsenal and Man City and away at Brentford. Luton gained 3 points although had a worse xG in every game. Luton have scored 7 goals and conceded 10 with xG estimating 2.02 goals with 9.01 conceded. The considerable over-performance in goals scored is highly likely to be an outlier.

Adebayo and Brown have both scored twice with Osho, Barkley, and Mengi scoring once. Doughty and Townsend have 2 assists with Barkley, Morris and Ogbene having one each.

The average positions of the starting line-ups are below. For all but Man City, there are clumps of players: on the right wing vs Palace, in the centre vs Brentford, and on the left wing vs Arsenal. Brentford was the only away game and saw nearly all of the Luton players averaging positions in their own half.

The following graph compares summary stats of Luton and AFCB over the last 4 games. AFCB are in front in all key statistics with considerably better xG and considerably less xGc.

The following graph compares summary stats of Luton and AFCB over the last 4 games. AFCB are in front in all key statistics with considerably better xG and considerably less xGc.

Your say…

AFCBade said…

I worry about Hooper – often had him when we played Watford and he was too lenient on their physical approach and Luton may be similar. Found Martin Atkinson the same vs Burnley

Feels like a real banana skin game. Parker’s side struggled in both games when we last played in the champ as Luton are an awkward side to play against. Even when losing they often had tight games as the Arsenal and Man City games show. – To join the conversation, click here.