Can Bournemouth Win Their Final Home Game Of The Season?

Written by billythekid

Last Home Game In What Has Been A Successful Season

As the 2023-24 Premier League season draws to a close with two games remaining, it has turned out to be our best season in the top league points/playing wise and various club records broken. Points-wise, since the 2016-17 season under Eddie Howe when his side had 46 points. Andoni Iraola our new manager for this season saw his side struggle for points in his opening nine games in charge while his players adapted to his style of play. In those nine opening games, our club took just 3 points from three drawn games. In 2016-17 in his opening nine games, Eddie Howe’s side took 12 points. Andoni Iraola’s side broke the record after 35 games with 48 points against Brighton. So in their last 29 games, AFCB had taken 45 points.

AFC Bournemouth v Brentford AFCB Win Vote Draw Vote Brentford Win Vote

Our team could pass 50 points in our next two games, the first is our last home game of the season at Dean Court against Brentford at 3 pm. This will be Thomas Frank the Brentford manager’s third season in the Premier League and it will also be his worst points total and league position in his three seasons in the top league. In his first season (2021-22), Brentford finished in 13th place with 46 points. Last season his side had a good season and finished 9th with 59 points. This season with two games to go his side are 16th with 36 points.

The last time our two sides met was the away game back in September and it was our fourth game of the season which ended in a 2-2 draw, our second point and draw of the season. Since that game, the Bees on their travels, have beaten Chelsea and Wolves 0-2, Luton Town 1-5. They have drawn with Nottingham Forest 1-1 and Aston Villa 3-3. They have lost twelve games, against Newcastle United, Manchester United, Liverpool, Brighton, Sheffield United, Crystal Palace, Spurs, Manchester City, West Ham, Arsenal, Burnley and Everton. At home, they have W 5, D 4, L 6.

The last time our two sides met at Dean Court was in October 2022, the game ended in a goalless draw.

In our league games at home against Brentford, AFCB have W 26, D 12, L 14.
In all competitions, AFCB have W 39, D 34, L 42.

AFCB Team News
No news of any new injuries or illness in the camp. Milos Kerkez serves his last match suspension.

AFCB Player To Watch
This might be the last chance for the home fans to see one or two of our players wearing a Cherries shirt. Lloyd Kelly who has been an integral part of our team in his five years at Dean Court and possibly Dominic Solanke who in his seven years at our club is having his best season, breaking the club record for the number of goals scored in a Premier League season.

Brentford Team News
On their injury list are Joshua Dasilva, Rico Henry, Ben Mee, Aaron Hickey, Mathias Jensen and Kristoffer Ajer who was substituted in the first half in their last game with a facial injury. Jensen and Ajer could be available on Saturday.

Brentford Player To Watch
Bryan Mbeumo strong all-round player, scored 8 goals and leads with 5 assists. Also their leading scorer Yoane Wissa leading scorer with 10 goals. Has scored 3 goals in their last five games. Ivan Toney normally would be the player to watch and on his return in January, he scored 4 goals in five games, the last against Liverpool in February. But in his last 10 appearances for his club he has failed to score, but must always be a threat.

The Referee
Matthew Donohue is the man in charge on Saturday, think this is his first game as a referee in the Premier League. He was in charge of our League Cup game at Swansea.

🍒 The last PL newbie referee that #AFCB had hasn’t officiated in the top division since their poor performance at Vitality three months ago. https://t.co/FZTmMUspw5

— Kris Temple (@kristemple) May 8, 2024

Matt Stevenson added

I’ve looked at the last 4 league games for Brentford. These were two home games (Shef U and Fulham) and away at Luton and Everton. Brentford gained 7 points, which appears fair, although if anything a little high. Brentford have scored 7 goals and conceded 2 with xG estimating 5.67 goals with 3.57 conceded suggesting they have slightly overperformed.

Brentford have had 5 scorers with Mbeumo having scored 2 and also having the highest number of assists with 2.

The average positions of the starting line-ups are below. Brentford generally prefer a tight band across the middle third of the pitch.

The following graph compares summary stats of Brentford and AFCB over the last 4 games. Whilst Brentford appear to have the edge our run of fixtures (Man U and Brighton at home and Wolves and Arsenal away) have been tougher than Brentford’s.

Brentford have had more percentage possession at around 50%. Brentford create a relatively large proportion of chances from set pieces, and concede a smaller proportion from these which appears to have been a feature of Frank’s side for some time.