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Who will come out on top, Bournemouth or Villa?

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Written by billythekid

Both Teams Will Be Looking For A Hat-Trick Of Wins

The Cherries traveled up North to play Sheffield United, the team were on a high after beating Newcastle United United at home recently before the international break. In a game that the Cherries dominated, they came back with all three points, the first away win of the season. This was our third win in the last four games, two were at Dean Court.

It sets our team up well for our visitors to Dean Court on Sunday at 2 pm, Aston Villa. The game has been moved to Sunday due to Villa playing in the Europa League on Thursday night. Both sides have won their last two league games and will be looking to get a hat-trick of wins.

When Unai Emery took over as manager at Aston Villa last October, Villa were in 15th place after 12 games with 12 points, one place and one point lower than AFCB. At the end of the season, Emery had taken his side up to a seventh-place finish with 61 points, a good achievement. Going into our game at Dean Court, Villa are fourth in the Premier League table, this is the first time they have been in that position since 2009. Emery and his team have had a very good start to this season and that is down to their home form, having won all six games which places them top of the home table league. Away from home, they have taken 10 points in 7 games.

On their travels, Villa have beaten Burnley 1-3, Chelsea 0-1, and Spurs in their most recent game 1-2 (more below). They drew with Wolves 1-1 and lost against Newcastle United on the opening game of the season 5-1. Their other two defeats were 3-0 at Anfield and 2-0 against Nottingham Forest. At home, their six wins were against Everton, Crystal Palace, and Brighton which was their biggest win, 6-1. West Ham, Luton Town, and Fulham the last three.

On Sunday in the Spurs v Villa game, Spurs had numerous chances in the first half, but could only convert one. Son had one of those days, he had three goals ruled out for offside and a chance in front of goal he hit over the crossbar. They were made to pay for the missed chances when Villa won a free kick in first-half injury time. Douglas Luiz put a dangerous ball into the Spurs area which was headed in by Paul Torres to make it 1-1. With Spurs having most of the play looking for the winner, it was Aston Villa who scored the winning goal, which Ollie Watkins coolly finished into the back of the net. Hadn’t seen a lot of Watkins during the game, but he was there when it mattered.

The last time our sides met at Dean Court was the opening game of last season. Jefferson Lerma opened the scoring for the Cherries as early as the 2nd minute and then an 80th-minute goal from Kieffer Moore and our side keeping a clean sheet it was a good start to the season for AFCB and our manager Scott Parker. But things were about to take a change for Parker and his team, losing their next three games conceding 16 goals and not scoring any, they were tough games against Manchester City, Arsenal, and Liverpool who scored 9, it was Parker’s last game as our manager.

AFCB v Aston Villa

Afcb win

Afcb win

draw

draw

villa win

villa win
In our games at home against Aston Villa, AFCB have W 3, D 0, L 2.
In all competitions, AFCB have W 5, D 1, L 5.

AFCB Team News
Lloyd Kelly was substituted at half time up at Bramall Lane after feeling a tight hamstring, no updated news.

AFCB Player To Watch
Antoine Semenyo is showing good form now and causing the opposition problems and hopefully will continue this form against Aston Villa.

Aston Villa Team News
Boubacar Kamara is suspended for this game. They have a couple of injuries, besides two long-term ones.

Aston Villa Player To Watch
They have John McGinn in their engine room and he had a very good game against Spurs. Douglas Luiz is dangerous at set pieces. But their player to watch is up front, Ollie Watkins, leads both with goals 7 and 5 assists. He has scored twice away from home.

The Referee
Thomas Bramall is the man in charge of this game. He was our referee at Liverpool.

Matt Stevenson added

I’ve looked at the last 4 league games for A Villa. These were at home to Luton and Fulham and away at Nottm Forest and Spurs. A Villa gained 9 points, this feels about right, although the xG would have had Villa winning at Forest and losing at Spurs. A Villa have scored 8 goals and conceded 5 whereas xG had them down as scoring 8.35 and conceding 4.13.

Goals xG.png

The average positions of the starting line-ups are below. Against potentially weaker teams Villa had a very aggressive formation with almost all the outfield players being in Nottm Forest half, and only slightly less forward against Luton. Against Spurs, the positioning was more solid with 8 of the 10 outfield players in Villa’s own half. Against Fulham, it was nearer the Spurs game, but Moussa Diaby was still left high.

Av pos.png

Watkins and McGinn, and surprisingly ‘own goals’ have all scored twice with Diaby and Pau scoring once. Bailey, Diaby, and Luiz have two assists each with Tielemans having one assist.

The following graph compares summary stats of A Villa and AFCB over the last 4 games. Given that it is 16th vs 4th the stats are fairly similar. The only one which stands out is in big chances with AFCB having markedly fewer but total xG is not that different.

Comparison.png

Villa have had higher possession over the last 4 games. AFCB have created a higher percentage of chances from open play and conceded a lower percentage from open play.

Percentages.png
Your say…

fritter said…

Villa are way up there in current form. But they have lost by a margin of two goals or more twice.

Many of us will have seen Villa for the first time back in the Bond days when a top of the table clash saw us win three-nil. That was a magnificent day.

I really fancy us to win. – To join the conversation, click here.

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Up The Cherries!

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