Can Bournemouth take all three points at Sheffield United?

Written by billythekid

After a good win at home against Newcastle United, which included keeping a second clean sheet this season, both at Dean Court, the other game was against Chelsea in a goalless draw. The Cherries will be looking to keep up that form and take all three points and get their first away win of the season when they visit Yorkshire. After the international break, the Cherries are away against the team automatically promoted in second place from the Championship last season, Sheffield United. The game is on Saturday at Bramall Lane at 3 pm.

Their manager since 25th November 2021 is Paul Heckingbottom. He took over from Slavisa Jokanovic with the Blades in 16th place in the Championship after 19 games and on 29 points. At the end of that season, Heckingbottom had taken his side up to 5th place with 75 points, 13 points behind second place AFCB. The following season his side finished second (mentioned above), with 91 points.

They have had a tough introduction to the Premier League, losing their first three games, two of them at home, 0-1 against Crystal Palace and 1-2 against Manchester City. They then picked up their first point which was at home in a 2-2 draw with Everton. Then followed six consecutive defeats, two at home including their heaviest defeat so far this season, 0-8 against Newcastle United. The other one was 1-2 against Manchester United. In their last home game, United beat Wolves 2-1 for their first win of the season.

Away from home, Sheffield United lost 2-1 against Nottingham Forest and also Spurs. Then the three games in London, West Ham 2-0, Fulham 3-1 and Arsenal 5-0. They picked up a point against Brighton in a 1-1 draw which was their last game before the international break.

Our last game at Bramall Lane was in April 2022 and it finished in a goalless draw.

In our away games in the league against Sheffield United, AFCB have W 1, D 3, L 5.
In all competitions, AFCB have W 2, D 6, L 11.

Sheff United Win

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Draw

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AFCB Win

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I’ve looked at the last 4 league games for Shef U. These were at home to Man U and Wolves and away at Arsenal and Brighton. Shef U gained 4 points, a win versus Wolves and a draw at Brighton. This feels about right, although the only game Shef U had a higher xG was against a misfiring Man U. Shef U have scored 4 goals and conceded 9 whereas xG had them down as scoring 3.57 and conceding 6.73.

The average positions of the starting line-ups are below. Against Man U there was a circle in the midfield and against Arsenal, it was largely a defensive display (the xG of 0.03 is one of the lowest values I have seen). For Wolves there seemed to be a preference for the right-hand side, whereas against Brighton the average position is very odd with a thin line of 7 players just behind the centre line.

Shef U have had 3 scorers in the last 4 games, Archer, Norwood (a pen) and McBurnie with 1 each and an own goal. There have been 4 credited assists from McAtee (2), Bogle and Baldock.

The following graph compares summary stats of Shef U and AFCB over the last 4 games. For the first time this season, AFCB are ahead on almost every statistic.

Both teams have had less than 40% possession over the last 4 games, with AFCB having slightly more. AFCB have created a higher percentage of chances from open play and conceded a higher percentage from open play.