Written by Matt Stevenson
Here is the xG from the very eventful N Forest game. The opening 22 minutes were quite cagey (xGs of N Forest 0.26 and AFCB 0.16) with only half chances not better than 1 in 10 before Boly was sent off in the 22nd minute. Having already been booked from chopping down Solanke, he won the ball and slid forward, with Smith stepping on him. It was a harsh second yellow with the ref assuming he went studs first into the AFCB man; the ref later booked Christie for a similar challenge so it must be something he has a bugbear about. This decision changed the dynamics of the game and up to half time the xGs were N Forest 0.04 and AFCB 0.34 with Bournemouth failing to create a clear chance, with the best being a header from Semenyo rated 1 in 7.
Any half-time plan for AFCB went out of the window when Forest scored immediately after the break. Scott brought down the ball well and attempted to jink past Wood but was tackled. One pass later and Elanga was through on goal to shoot in Neto’s bottom right corner (rated 27%). A quick response was needed given the resilient defence and the hostile crowd and we managed it, with a cross from Senesi finding Solanke who flicked it into the far corner (rated 1 in 50). 5 minutes later it was very nearly 2-1, a loose ball following a defensive error finding Semenyo, whose shot was blocked by what appeared to be (on tv) Williams testicles, rated 38%. But two minutes later we had taken the lead, Forest failed to clear the danger following a corner and Philip flicked it on to Solanke who put it in the net (almost 1 in 2). From this goal, the game dropped with the xG between the 58th minute and the 78th minute being N Forest 0.02 and AFCB 0.04, but Forest still scored. Wood’s header from a corner was a minor chance (rated 1 in 50) but with Neto ready to save and Solanke ready to clear off the line, the ball deflected off Sinesterra’s head and over both. With the crowd up Forest had a clutch of chances in the 79th minute, with Ouattara clearing a ball from near the line that may have been going wide, but he wasn’t going to be sure of this. AFCB fought back, and in the 82nd minute, Brooks hit the post with a deft touch (rated 29%) and Solanke had a shot blocked (1 in 11) with the defender’s follow-through leaving him stricken and hobbling for a little. However, he could stay on, which was fortunate, as in injury time, Smith crossed and Solanke directed the ball back across goal and into the top right corner (rated 1 in 30). Watkins had cost us 2 points in the Villa game with a similar header, but Solanke gained us 2 here and completed his first hat trick. The final xG was N Forest 0.79 AFCB 1.89, although OPTA had it closer as 1.02 vs 1.61.
AFCB had 39 touches in the opposition’s penalty area, beating the previous high of 35 versus Chelsea, with Solanke having 10 followed by Ouattara with 8.
Our players tried to take on a man 26 times being successful 8 times. Semenyo completed 2 from 2, whilst Christie had 3 from 6. Solanke was 0 from 5, although his efforts elsewhere overshadow this.
We had 18 attempts (three big) noting that chances can be provided after saves, deflections or a defensive error and not created. We hit the target three times. N Forest had 11 attempts, one big, and hit the target 4 times. Solanke had the most shots for AFCB with 6, joint highest with Tavernier’s half-dozen against Sheffield Utd.
AFCB won 15 of 26 tackles. Ouattara won 7 from 8 and Cook 2 from 2.
According to Opta, AFCB made one error leading to a goal which was when Scott was tackled in our final third.
The Opta expected goals had Solanke (0.73) as the most likely to score for AFCB with Semenyo (0.31) next. For assists, Cook and Tavernier (0.19) were joint highest as we struggled at times to create chances.
