Stat Attack – Luton v AFC Bournemouth

Written by Matt Stevenson

Here is the xG timeline for the Luton game. I couldn’t follow this game live but the stats are less encouraging than people’s view of the game. AFCB hit the post twice in the first 15 minutes but both were hard chances that you wouldn’t expect to score from. The first was a Tavernier free kick (rated 1 in 30) and the second was a Kluivert shot (1 in 20). At half time neither side had created a good chance and the xG was Luton 0.23 and AFCB 0.19. Luton had the best chance after the break with the ball falling to Morris with his shot beaten away well by Neto (1 in 12). Soon after we had taken the lead, Tavernier striking from outside the box, but unlike Kluivert’s earlier effort, this was just inside the post (rated 1 in 30). The game remained bitty, with Morris hitting the same post Bournemouth had hit twice (1 in 30) and at 70 minutes, the xG was Luton 0.58 AFCB 0.29. Luton then began their comeback, Clark made a run through the centre, with Bournemouth players not wanting to give away the foul, a challenge between Kelly and Berry saw the ball fall fortuitously for Clark who had continued his run and he put it neatly into the corner (1 in 5). Then in the final minute, Morris took advantage of a Zabarnyi slip to guide the ball into the far corner from close range following a left-wing cross (1 in 2). There were no more chances and the final xG was Luton 1.40, AFCB 0.34. Understat had it closer but also thought Luton had the higher value (1.30 vs 0.62).

The average positions are below. Smith (15) was much more advanced than Kerkez (3) whilst Kluivert (19) was further forward than Solanke (9). Tavenier (16) and Semenyo (24) were more central and closer to Solanke than in previous games. The first sub was enforced with an injury to Tavernier and with Ouattara (11) replacing him on the right side. On 73 minutes Philip (29) replaced Kluivert, but played much deeper and Unal (26) replaced Semenyo with Solanke playing more on the left. With 4 minutes to go, and the game level Senesi (25) replaced Kerkez (3) with Kelly (5) presumably shifting to left back and Scott (14) replaced Cook (4).

Christie had the most touches in total (70) slightly ahead of Kelly (68). Christie had the highest number of touches in the opposition half (28) and was joint level with Tavernier in the final third with 17.

AFCB had 23 touches in the opposition’s penalty area. Kluivert had the most (6) despite coming off with over 20 minutes to play.

Kelly attempted the most passes with 52. Christie attempted most in the opposition’s half 14 whilst Tavernier had most in the final third with 11. We averaged 68% completion. No starting player was above 80% completion, Solanke being highest at 78%

AFCB attempted 11 crosses, being successful with 2, from Ouattara and Smith.

Our players tried to take on a man 19 times being successful 10 times. Christie had the most successes, 4 from 5 attempts.

AFCB created 7 chances (1 big). Solanke set up 2 of the chances. Luton created 15 chances one big.

We had 8 attempts (1 big) noting that chances can be provided after saves, deflections or a defensive error and not created. We hit the target once. Tavernier and Kluivert had 3 attempts each Luton had 19 attempts, 1 big, and hit the target 9 times.

AFCB won 10 of 27 aerials duals. Kerkez may have been targeted having joint most aerial duels and winning 1 of 5.

AFCB won 22 of 29 tackles. Christie won 6 from 8.

Kelly made the most defensive actions with 18. Cook, Smith and Solanke all made 2 interceptions. Neto made the most recoveries (11). Kelly made the most clearances (7) and Smith made the most blocks (2).

According to Opta, AFCB made one error leading to a chance (from Zabarnyi).

The foul count was AFCB 14, Luton 6. Smith made most fouls (4). Six Bournemouth players were fouled once each.

The Opta expected goals had Kluivert (0.19) as the most likely to score with no other player being above 0.10. For assists, Christie (0.32) was top, with Tavernier at 0.16.

Your say…

Cherry_Bozzo wrote…

I find it interesting to look at where we have picked up our points this season in relation to league position.

Against the eight teams currently below us our record is:

P15, W9, D3, L3, Pts 30

Against the eleven teams currently above us it is:

P16, W2, D5, L9, Pts 11

So solid results against the “lesser” teams which, assuming maintained again next season, should ensure no relegation battle. However, clearly need a better return against the “better” teams if a European challenge is to be realistic.

Of course, an excellent end to this season could still do that but would probably mean having to win at least 6 of the last 7 games, and that may still not be enough after Saturday’s loss. – To join the conversation, click here.