Stat Attack – AFCB v Nottingham Forest

Written by Matt Stevenson

This performance gave cherries fans more hope, although due to the subjectiveness of xG, some estimates have favoured Forest, although the one I use for the timeline favours AFCB. After a fairly bright opening 10 minutes from both sides, the game died down until the first of 3 big chances (2 to AFCB, 1 for Forest). Zemura heading down the left flank and crossing the ball to Moore, central and about 9 yards out. He didn’t / couldn’t keep it down and it went over (rated 45%). Three minutes later, however, Bournemouth were in front, a headed one-two between Ouattara and Moore, and the new signing showed his pace to raid down the right, and composure to find Anthony. Anthony’s first touch was perfect allowing him to sweep the ball into the far left corner with this next touch. Zemura had a chance from a tight angle (1 in 7) before our second big chance arrived. Again, it was created by Zemura who found Christie who headed wide (1 in 3). Forest had had one chance (1 in 8) by Yates, but at half-time AFCB had looked like the better team (xg of 1.22 vs 0.57). The first 35 minutes of the second half weren’t too bad from a Bournemouth perspective with little happening (xG of 0.36 for Bournemouth and 0.13 for the visitors) but with 10 minutes to go Forest had a cluster of small chances before they scored. Moore headed it past an oncoming Pearson (you can hear Willo’s reaction on commentary) allowing Gibbs-White to feed Johnson, with a good dinked pass, who crossed it hard for Surridge to slide in and score from 1 yard. Both teams had a couple of half chances after this, as a draw may not have been a good help to either team, but it finished 1-1.

The average positional map shows how high Zemura (33) played with Kelly and Stephens being more to the left than typical. This may be the enigma of Zemura, who set up the two big chances, but may not be defensively-minded enough (or have enough quality team mates) to be selected against the top teams in the division. Christie (10) Rothwell (14) and Moore had quite similar average positions, with Ouattara the most advanced of the starting line up.

Zemura had the most touches in the game, followed by Lerma and Anthony, showing AFCB largely played down the left-hand side. Ouattara had the most touches in the opposition’s half and jointly with Anthony in the final third. The new signing had the most penalty area touches with 7. The 30 touches in the penalty area are noticeably higher than in recent games (Brentford 15, Man U 14, Palace 19 and Chelsea 17) although two of these games were away to ‘big six’ teams.

Lerma and Stevens made 40 or more passes. Anthony made the most in the opposition’s half and final third. Five players attempting 10 or more passes in the final third looks to be the highest for Bournemouth this season. The pass completion rate was relatively low (73%) but we passed the ball less at the back and may have been trying more incisive passing. Stevens made 35 of 40 passes (88%) but Neto, Moore and Zemura all had less than 60%.

AFCB attempted 15 crosses, being successful with 6 (Outtara and Rothwell trying 5 each and being successful twice each). Our players tried to take on a man 13 times, being successful only once (Anthony 1 from 4).

For the first time in the last 5 games (when I started recording these data) we created a double-digit number of chances, 10 chances, and two big chances, compared with one in total across the previous four games. Time will tell if there has been an improvement or whether it was because the opposition were weaker. Forest only had the equaliser as a big chance and created 15 chances (Gibbs-White with 7).

We had 16 attempts) noting that chances can be provided after saves or a defensive error and not created. Ouattara had 5, Anthony 3, Christie, Moore and Zemura 2 attempts each and Kelly and Rothwell 1 each. We hit the target three times (1 each for Anthony, Ouattara and Rothwell)

AFCB won 20 of 38 aerials duals in the match with Moore being involved in 11 (winning 5)

Zemura made most tackles (5). As a team, Bournemouth won 11 of 16 tackles.

Lerma stands out for winning 100% of his aerial duels (5) and tackles (2).

Lerma had most defensive actions with 16, with six other players making 10 or more.

Have your say…

GaryRB wrote…

Those stats back up the impression that Lerma was very solid, seemed to be blocking a lot, clearing a lot of headers etc
Disappointing on the 2 missed headers would have thought Moore’s would be more than 45% in the Premier League, lesser likelihood the lower down the leagues you go.

TrevorMorganFanClub said…

I didn’t really get why people cared about some of these stats, but I’m finding these posts more and more interesting and I’m actually looking forward to them after a game now!

Thanks Matt S for opening up a new view of football I didn’t realise mattered (although I’m still not completely certain it does) – To join the conversation, click here.