Stat Attack – AFC Bournemouth v Luton Town

Written by Matt Stevenson

Here is the xG from the Luton game which was the proverbial game of two halfs. Luton didn’t have many shots, but 5 of the 8 were classified as big chances. They scored with their first chance. Poor communication between Cook and Smith gave Chong a free header from close range (rated 56%). Morris had a header in the six-yard box four minutes later blocked (1 in 5). Bournemouth had a similarly rated chance 3 minutes later when Sinisterra shot from wide of the right of the six-yard box before the game settled down for 15 minutes. Luton then scored with a well-worked goal. A one-two left Smith out of position and Doughty crossed for Ogbene to make it 2-0 (rated 52%). AFCB were only having small chances and just before the break Barkley broke through with Cook deeper than the centre-backs playing him on and hit a hard shot into the goal (1 in 8). At half time we were 3-0 down with the xG AFCB 0.77 and Luton 1.44.

AFCB got the start to the second half they needed with a brilliant goal from Solanke tricking the defender and chipping the advancing keeper (1 in 3). 14 minutes later we were incredibly level. In the 62nd minute, Zarbarnyi rose in a crowd scene to nod in, with the ball having crossed the line before it was cleared (2 in 5). Two minutes later we scored again, a raking ball from Christie found Semenyo who jinked into the area and slotted it back into the near post (1 in 16) In the 70th minute Luton had two big chances – the first was a Morris header (rated 3 in 10) followed by a Barkley strike (1 in 4). Bournemouth kept pushing and Semenyo played it to Unal wide who threaded the ball back to him to make it 4-3. (1 in 5) Still, AFCB kept pushing forward and in the 97th minute, Unal had a chance to seal the game but didn’t beat the keeper (1 in 5). The final xG was AFCB 2.35, Luton 2.06; the xGs produced by Understat were higher being AFCB 2.84, Luton 2.79, both suggesting a draw may have been a fairer result.

Semenyo

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Solanke

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Christie

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Cook

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Unal

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Mepham

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Someone else

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The average positions of our players were high (with Mepham (6) being further back behind Zabarnyi (27) and with Ouattara being the only other starter in our own half. The reason Mepham and Zabarnyi are both central is because Iraola swapped who was left sided and who was right sided (thanks for this info Dibby). Cook (4) and Christie (10) again shielded the centre backs. Both Semenyo (24) and Sinisterra (17) held high positions and Scott (14) is advanced of Solanke (9) although Solanke dropped deeper after half-time. At 3-0 down Iraola made two changes at the break with Unal (26) coming on for Scott and playing alongside Solanke, and Tavernier (16) for Simisterra, probably to provide more defensive discipline in front of Ouattara. On 71 minutes and with the game level, Adams (18) came on for his league debut for Bournemouth, with Cook moving to a right-back position. In the 90th minute Philip replaced Solanke, and 4 minutes into 9 added on, Hill (23) replaced Christie who had just received treatment and was likely required to spend 30 seconds on the sidelines.

Edited to note that Mepham and Zabarnyi had switched who played left and right at half-time

Ouattara and Christie had the most touches with 83 each. Semenyo had the most touches in the opposition half (49) and in the final third with 38.

We had 41 touches in the opposition’s penalty area with Semenyo having 11 and Sinisterra 10.

Mepham attempted 58 passes, Christie 54 and Zabarnyi 53. Christie and Semenyo attempted most in the opposition’s half (29 each) and Semenyo most in the final third with 21. AFCB averaged 80% completion. From the starting eleven Sinisterra (100%), Mepham (90%) and Solanke (89%) performed best.

AFCB attempted 33 crosses being successful with 7 (4 from Cook).

Our players tried to take on a man 30 times being successful 19 times. Semenyo was successful 4 times from 5 attempts and Sinisterra 3 times from 4 attempts.

We created 22 chances (3 big). Luton created 8 chances with 5 big.

We had 24 attempts (4 big) noting that chances can be provided after saves, deflections or a defensive error and not created. We hit the target 9 times. Luton had 8 attempts, 5 big, and hit the target 4 times.

AFCB won 24 of 50 aerials duals. Mepham won 6 from 10.

AFCB won 17 out of 20 tackles. Both Christie and Ouattara won 4 from 4.

Ouattara made the most defensive actions with 11. Christie made the most interceptions (2), Neto and Ouattara made the most recoveries (8), Mepham made the most clearances (4), and made our only block.

According to Opta, AFCB made no errors leading to chances or goals.

The foul count was AFCB 16, Luton 10. Unal made 4 fouls and Mepham 3. Christie, Unal and Zabarnyi were fouled twice each.

The Opta expected goals had Sinisterra as most likely to score for AFCB (0.46) although Solanke (0.44), Unal (0.42), Semenyo (0.40) and Zabarnyi (0.40) were close behind. For assists, Cook was the only player above 0.15.