Stat Attack – AFC Bournemouth v Chelsea

Written by Matt Stevenson

Here’s the xG from a tense and exciting 0-0 draw as I can remember despite not many big chances there was a sense that something could happen at any time. Depending on which source you believe the xG was either close or quite a bit in Chelsea’s favour; my view was somewhere between the two.

Chelsea’s biggest chance came early on (the 10th minute) when Sterling did well to beat the offside trap and scuffed it wide of the far post from the right corner of the six-yard box. (rated 3 in 10). Two minutes later Jackson hit the post from distance (1 in 33). 7 minutes later came AFCB’s biggest chance with a quick free-kick allowing Christie to square for Ouattara with Sanchez producing a fine save (rated 1 in 2). The rest of the half was fairly uneventful, a shot from Gallagher produced a good save from Neto, (rated 1 in 7 due to the defensive positioning) and Philip had a shot blocked (rated 1 in 11). At half time the xG was AFCB 0.72 and Chelsea 0.59, the Cherries being in front primarily due to the Ouattara chance.

In the 49th minute, Sterling lined up a potentially dangerous free kick (1 in 11) that was inches away from the top corner but struck the angle (Neto did well to not touch the ball as it came back across) but Colwill fired in. 1-0 Chelsea, until the linesman flagged for offside. The next scare was in the 64th minute when it was pinball time – Colwill getting two attempts (both around the one-in-14 ratio) before we scrambled the ball clear. AFCB were growing into the game though and had two quick chances, in the 77th minute, it looked like we had been awarded a penalty, but a free kick was given on the edge of the box. Philip’s shot was deflected wide (1 in 6). Two minutes later, Solanke nutmegged Gallagher and fired through a defender’s legs only to be blocked by Sanchez’s outstretched foot (1 in 7). Chelsea came back and broke outnumbering AFCB, but it didn’t work well, only presenting Palmer with a 1 in 7 chance, which Neto saved it was headed away but to Maatsen, who was denied by a brilliant block from Senesi (1 in 6). The last half chance of the game fell to Solanke (1 in 11) but his shot was blocked.

The xG was AFCB 1.33 and Chelsea 1.40, although Opta had it more in Chelsea’s favour (1,19 vs 1.71).

Our shape has seemed better in recent weeks possibly as players adjust to the new manager. The two centre backs (Zabarnyi (27) and Kelly (5)) played deeper than the full backs Aarons (37) and Kerkez (3) with a clump of players in the midfield. When Senesi (25) replaced Kerkez, with Kelly moved across to left back, his position was nearly the same as Kelly’s. The first change was Kluivert (19) for an out-of-form Ouattara (11) although Kluivert changed to the right when Sinisterra (17) replaced Tavernier (16), with Senesi coming on for Kerkez at the same time. A late change saw Brooks (7) coming on for Christie (10). I couldn’t tell whether Brooks took the central role of whether Kluivert pushed into there, Brooks’ average position suggests the latter.

Most touches were had by the defence Aarons had 59 and Kelly 56. Aarons and Cook had the most touches in the opposition half with 28, whilst Solanke had had most touches in the final third with 22, followed by Christie with 20.

We had 35 touches in the opposition’s penalty area, Solanke having 13 of these followed by Kluivert with 5 from only a third of the game.

Zabarnyi and Kelly both attempted 43 passes, with Cook third on 35. Cook made the most in Chelsea’s half followed by Aarons; Christie made the most in the final third (10) with four players making 8, including both fullbacks. We averaged a 79% completion with Christie and Cook of the starting 11 having values greater than 85%.

AFCB attempted 15 crosses, being successful with 5 (three from Christie).

Our players tried to take on a man 16 times, being successful an impressive 12 times. Tavernier completed the highest number with 3 from 4, with both Christie and Cook having a 100% record from 2 attempts.

We created 10 chances (one big, Christie to Ouattara). Chelsea created 8 chances with one of them big, Sterling’s early effort.

We had 13 attempts (one big) noting that chances can be provided after saves, deflections, or a defensive error and not created. We hit the target 4 times. Chelsea had 14 attempts, 1 big, and hit the target six times

AFCB won 5 of 11 aerials duals. This is the lowest number of duels this season and is small compared to the West Ham (45) and the Brentford (33) games. Cook one 2 out of 2.

We won 15 out of 25 tackles with both Cook and Ouattara winning 3 out of 3.

Aarons had the most defensive actions with 16. Cook made the most interceptions, Aarons made the most recoveries, Kelly and Philip made the most clearances and Kelly and Senesi each made 1 block both from good shooting chances.

AFCB made no errors leading to a shooting chance.

Cook and Kerkez gave away most fouls (4) with Kluivert being our most fouled player (4) despite only having half an hour or so.

The OPTA expected goals had Solanke (0.40), Ouattara (0.32) and Philip (0.29) as those most likely to score for AFCB. Kluivert (0.55) and Christie (0.41) created the better chances based on xA of 0.15) with all the remaining players bar Kerkez having small values. AFCB had an xGc of 1.71 and didn’t concede.

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Your say…

darwinsdummy said…

Happy with the performance. Aside from a scramble or two and Sterling’s free kick, largely kept them at bay while fashioning chances at the other end. A draw was probably a fair result, though if any team was looking likely to get a winner near the end it was us. Big performances by Neto (good to put the Brentford game behind him), Kelly (head seems to be on straight after the transfer interest), both fullbacks Aarons and Kerkez, and Cook who was everywhere in the center of the park. Zabarnyi and Billing also had relatively good games, if a bit quieter, while Christie and Solanke kept fighting to make things happen up the pitch. Wings were a bit weak today, though with both Tavs and Dango being relatively newly back after long injuries maybe some leeway can be given. – To join the conversation, click here.