Can Everton find first win of 2024 at Bournemouth?

Written by billythekid

We hear the expression a game of two halves used in football, our last game at Dean Court against Luton Town was exactly that. The Hatters went into half-time with a three-goal lead and what looked like 3 points. Only for the Cherries to be sent out early ready for the second half with a couple of changes and also a positional change. From the referee’s whistle, AFCB took charge and made relentless attacks into the Luton Town half and in a fifteen-minute three-goal spell, were back on level terms. There only looked one winner at this point and with eight minutes of normal time remaining, the Cherries took the lead and the what turned out to be the last goal of one of the most exciting and brilliant comebacks seen at Dean Court.

Well, it will be hard to follow that last home game. Our next game is at Dean Court on Saturday at 3 pm after a 17-day break. Our visitors are Everton who are managed by Sean Dyche. His side sit two places above a relegation spot on goal difference, but do have a game in hand, they still have the threat of another points deduction hanging over them. When our two sides last met at Goodison Park in October, Everton won 3-0 and after eight games were in 15th place with AFCB in 19th and a relegation place.

Since the game at Goodison, Everton on their travels have beaten West Ham 0-1, Crystal Palace 2-3, Nottingham Forest 0-1 and Burnley 0-2. Drawn 0-0 with Fulham and 1-1 at Brighton. They have lost against Liverpool 2-0, Spurs 2-1, Wolves 3-0 and 2-0 against both the Manchester clubs, City and United. At home they have W 2, D 4, L 3. AFCB after 28 games are 13th in the table with 35 points. Everton after 28 games are 16th with 25 points. Everton’s last win in the league was back in December and it was away at Burnley and it was the last game of a four-game winning run.

The last time our clubs met at Dean Court was November 2022. First-half goals from Marcus Tavernier and Kieffer Moore gave the Cherries a 2-0 lead at half-time. They added one more goal to their tally in the second half, with Jaidon Anthony scoring to make the final score 3-0, this meant the Cherries remain unbeaten at home against the Toffees.

In all our home league games against Everton, AFCB have W 4, D 2, L 0.
In all competitions against Everton, AFCB have W 6, D 2, L 10.

AFCB Team News
Max Aarons will be back in the squad for Everton. Marcus Senesi and Lloyd Kelly hopefully will be back in the squad after returning to training, but Luis Sinisterra is out with a hamstring injury. No reports of any injuries to our players on international duty.

AFCB Player To Watch
Antoine Semenyo has been an exciting player to watch in recent games, is second-leading scorer with 7 goals and has scored three times in his last three games with a brace against Luton Town.

Everton Team News
Arnaut Danjuma, Idrissa Gueye and Delle Alli have been out injured.

Everton Player To Watch
Dwight McNeil in midfield, a strong all-round player, leads with 5 assists.
Abdoulaye Doucoure is their leading scorer with 6 goals.

The Referee
Sam Barrott is the man in charge of this game. He was the referee for our home game against Burnley.

Matt Stevenson added…

I’ve looked at the last 4 league games for Everton. These were two home games (C Palace and W Ham) and away at Brighton and Man U. Everton gained 2 points although the XGs suggested this was an unfair reflection, with 6 being more likely with Everton being dominant in the home games. Everton have scored 3 goals and conceded 7 with xG estimating 6.37 goals with 6.72 conceded highlighting a problem in scoring.

Everton have had 3 different goal scorers (Beto, Branthwaite and Onana with one each). Garner and McNeil have one assist each.

The average positions of the starting line-ups are below. In the away game at Brighton, the team sat back (and only had an xG of 0.29) whereas the team was more attacking against Man Utd, being closer to the formations for the home games.

The following graph compares summary stats of Everton and AFCB over the last 4 games. On the underlying stats AFCB are doing well offensively with more goal attempts, big chances, xG and goals scored, but with Everton having the better stats defensively in particular for big chances conceded.

Everton have marginally more percentage possession at 50%, with AFCB at 45%. Surprisingly for a Dyche-managed team Everton are conceding a high proportion of chances from set pieces.