Can Bournemouth Remain Unbeaten Against Eddie’s Newcastle?

Written by billythekid

The Cherries suffered their first defeat at Craven Cottage against Fulham after an eight-game unbeaten run against Fulham since the 20th April 1992. It wasn’t a good afternoon for our travelling fans. They will be hoping for better things when our team travel up to the North East for our second away trip in a row. They will be playing at St James’ Park against Newcastle United on Saturday at 3 pm. A round trip of just under 700 miles, but even with the long journey, it’s one of the favourite venues for our travelling fans.
The Cherries so far have an unbeaten record against Eddie in the league since he became the Magpies manager, with one win and two draws.

The win was at Dean Court last November. Since that defeat, United have had three home wins, Chelsea 4-1, Manchester United 1-0 and Fulham 3-0. They then lost against Nottingham Forest 1-3, which finished a seven home game unbeaten run. They then had Manchester City and that finished 2-3, two home defeats in a row. The last home game was a 4-4 draw with Luton Town. Newcastle United have taken 25 points at home in their twelve games. They are joint fourth-highest scorers with 29 goals, equal with Manchester City who have played one less game.

Away from home since their defeat at Dean Court, the Magpies have beaten Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest, these were their most recent away games. They have lost against Everton, Spurs, Luton Town and Liverpool. Newcastle United’s away record has let them down, in their twelve away games they have taken 11 points.

The last time the Cherries visited St James’ Park in the league, was in September 2022. The game finished all square in a 1-1 draw. Both goals came in a five-minute second-half period. Philip Billing opened the scoring in the 62nd minute, but five minutes later, Alexander Isak equalised from the penalty spot after Jefferson Lerma’s hand ball.
His side did beat us in the League Cup at St James’ Park three months after the league game, with an Adam Smith own goal.

In all our away league games against Newcastle United, AFCB have W 2, D1, L 3.
In all competitions, AFCB have W 5, D 6, L 7.

Newcastle v AFCB Newcastle Win Vote Draw Vote AFCB Win Vote

Newcastle United Team News
Sandro Tonali is on a long suspension. On the injury front, Joelinton, Matt Targett, Nick Pope, Elliot Anderson, Joe Willock and leading scorer Alexander Isak. There is a slight doubt over Callum Wilson, who has yet to face his former club in the league.

Newcastle United Player To Watch
Bruno Guimaraes had a good game against Nottingham Forest and was MOM. He also scored two goals. In his last four league games he has scored two and assisted two. Kieran Trippier leads with ten assists, three in his last three games, plus a goal.

AFCB Team News
No news on any new injury concerns.

AFCB Player To Watch
Dominic Solanke is due a goal, his record this season of not going beyond two games without a league goal. He also scored a brace against Eddie Howe’s team at home.

The Referee
Michael Salisbury is in charge. He was the referee for our home game with Arsenal.

Matt Stevenson added

I’ve looked at the last 4 league games for Newcastle. These were two home games (Man C and Luton) and away at Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest. Newcastle gained 7 points although the xGs suggest this was an overachievement with 4 being more likely. Newcastle have scored 12 goals and conceded 10 with xG estimating 6.81 goals with 8.32 conceded; the +5 overachievement in goals scored in the last 4 games is one of the highest I’ve seen in doing the previews.

Newcastle have had 7 different goal scorers, the leading one being Schar with 3 from centre-back, followed by Guimaraes and Longstaff with 2 each. Trippier has 3 assists, Guimaraes 2 and five others have 1 assist each.

The average positions of the starting line-ups are below. Newcastle often look to leave one man high, even against Manchester City. Against Luton at home, which may be most relevant to AFCB, Trippier pushed high from right full-back with a fairly congested centre of the park, although this could be wingers swapping sides.

The following graph compares summary stats of Newcastle and AFCB over the last 4 games. Newcastle have scored a lot more goals but the underlying attempts, big chances and xG are more comparable. Newcastle have conceded 1 more, but the underlying data suggests this should be more.

Both teams have low possession stats (around 45%). Surprisingly, AFCB have created a higher percentage of chances from set plays with the percentage of chances conceded from open play being slightly higher for Newcastle.