Written by Matt Stevenson
I’ve looked at the last 4 league games for Everton. They were home to Man C and away at Leicester, Brighton and Wolves. They picked up 5 points from these games, which seems a fair reward at a high level, although the results and the xG don’t particularly match up. The shock result was the 5-1 win at Brighton although xG predicted Brighton to win. In contrast, what would appear a routine 3-0 win for Man City had an xG favouring Everton by more than 1. Everton have scored 8 goals and conceded 7, whereas xG predicted 9.14 and 9.05. This suggests goals at the weekend.
The average positions of the starting line-ups are below. You’d need a better tactician with spare time to interpret this mess / Dyche genius. Against Leicester, he seemed to play heavily down their left-hand side, at Wolves it was aggressive clumps, versus Brighton the shape was much more defensive and versus Man C it was a wall across the centre line. I can’t predict much here, but Everton will need to win if Leicester win against W Ham, so I anticipate that they will be on the front foot. Hopefully leaving gaps behind for Ouattara should he start.
Everton have had 5 scorers and one own goal (Dacoure and McNeil have 2 each) with 5 different players contributing assists (McNeil with 2).
The following graph compares summary stats of Everton and AFCB over the last 4 games. Everton have created more chances, more big chances, and have scored more goals per game than AFCB. Attempts conceded are comparable, but Everton have conceded more big chances but have let in fewer goals per game than AFCB. On xG, Everton were expected to both score and concede more than Bournemouth over the last 4 games.
Everton are one of the few teams to have less possession than AFCB over the last four games. The immediate message is that Everton created nearly 50% of their chances from set pieces in these games, living up to the reputation Dyche has attained. It is likely that there will be aerial bombardment from free kicks and corners. Potentially Everton will hit the ball long looking to get behind or to win the free kick.
Everton v AFCB
Everton Win
Draw
AFCB Win
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