Stat Attack – AFCB v Southampton

Written by Matt Stevenson

I only managed to listen to the second half on the radio but can’t find evidence of the game’s one big chance (according to Infogol). This is a near 50% rated effort for Aribo in the 29th minute near our left-hand post, but neither the Sky highlights nor the extended highlights on COWS show it. Apart from this phantom chance, no others were rated more than 1 in 7, which seems to play down the goal, Adams showing strength initially to win the ball from Senesi and then good movement to leave Senesi again to head home. (1 in 10). AFCB were creating a number of small chances and ignoring the Aribo attempt, restricted Southampton to an xG of 0.04 between the 10th and the 76th minute. The last 10 minutes belonged to the visitors though, there were two chances immediately before the final substitutions and two after.

Having missed the first half, I didn’t hear in real time about the positional changes. Switching the full backs could explain why the players are largely bunched centrally with Senesi positioned wider than Smith. Solanke and Tavernier had very similar positions on average, as did Fredericks and Christie. Southampton’s control of the last 10 minutes is shown by the positions of Moore and Dembele in our half. Overall, however, the players were further advanced than in previous games.

There were far more touches of the ball for AFCB players than in previous games. Senesi and Smith had most overall, with Tavernier most in the opposition half and final third.

Smith and Senesi made the most passes, with Smith and Stanislas having a completion rate above 90% for those who made 15 or more passes. Billing’s completion rate was noticeably lower than normal (only 57% of passes in the opponent’s half)

Lerma and Billing had the most aerial duels (5 and 4 respectively). Lerma won all of his, with Billing winning 75%

Billing won 100% of his four tackles, with no one else attempting more than 2. AFCB won 13 out of 18 tackles.

Cook and Lerma made the most recoveries with interceptions, clearances and blocks fairly evenly spread. Lerma had the greatest number of the four combined (15), followed by Cook (12), Mepham and Smith (10 each)

Billing

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L.Cook

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Tavernier

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Christie

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Smith

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Someone else

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Your say…

Kicks_On_66 wrote…

In the 29th minute, Maitland-Niles threaded a very nice pass down the right wing, into the box, for Elyounussi. He attempt a low cross into the 6-yard box, which Mepham cleared solidly away. On the ensuing throw-in, Walker-Peters eluded two AFCB defenders in the right corner, dribbled into the 18, and sent a hard cross into the 6, maybe a yard or two from the line. The ball rattled off Neto-Senesi-Mepham, until the latter cleared it out to midfield.
Both of these events were potentially trouble, but I suspect it was the latter with the big xG score. Aribo was nearby and would have needed only a touch to score.

Matt Stevenson added…

Thanks KO66. XG should only be awarded if the forward touches the ball though, so just missing a cross should have an xG of zero, despite it being a threatening position. So I suspect the Infogol numbers are incorrect here.

Gazza’s ’miss’ versus Germany in Euro 96 is the best example that springs to mind of something incredibly dangerous that would get an xG of zero. – Join the conversation, click here.