Written by Matt Stevenson
I’ve looked at the last 4 league games for Newcastle. These were against Arsenal and Crystal Palace away and Fulham and W Ham at home. They picked up 6 points from these games (1 win and 3 draws), which isn’t that inconsistent compared with xG-estimated returns. The games have been lacking in goals with 2 scored and 1 conceded, although more were predicted (5.68 vs 3.54) with Mitrovic missing a penalty in this sequence. The numbers aren’t high though, with Newcastle expected to score on average less than 3 across 2 games and concede on average just under 1 goal a game.
Wilson and Isak have 1 goal each, from xG of 1.90 and 1.71 respectively. Longstaff and Wilson have one assist each, from an xA of 0.99 and 0.90 respectively, although Trippier has been creating most chances (including dead ball situations) with an xA of 1.84 but with none of these being converted. Most of Newcastle’s chances created come from their right side, with the majority of attempts coming from within the box and from within 12 yards. Perhaps related to Newcastle’s attacking intent down its right, more chances created and conceded have come down its left, so the battle between Anthony (if he plays) and Trippier will be a key one.
The average position of the starting line-up shows that at home Newcastle push forward down their right wing, in particular with Trappier, nominally a full back getting forward more. In the away games, this is less pronounced, but as may be expected, Newcastle was more compact against Arsenal than against Palace where presumably they thought they could win more easily.
The key omission from the Newcastle team is Guimaraes who is suspended. As commentators have said he has been having a good season (although only 3 goals and 3 assists in the league) this will probably work in Bournemouth’s favour. Anthony Gordon has recently signed for big money and got 21 minutes against W Ham at the weekend so may be expected to play more at the Vitality stadium.
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AFCB v Newcastle
AFCB Win
Draw
Newcastle Win
Your say…
richnrg said…
I was at St Mary’s to watch them (Newcastle) play Southampton recently ( I showered after the game). The way that Trippier/ Almiron (right) and Willock/ Burn/ Joelinton (left) overlapped/underlapped on the wings really reminded me of the way Franno/ Ritchie and Daniels/ Pugh played together in our Championship winning season. – To join the conversation, click here.
