AFCB Vital Match Zone

Vital Verdict – Swansea v AFCB

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Written by Matt Stevenson

We posted our highest xG of the season, the highest difference in any of our games, but still didn’t take the 3 points. I’ve only seen the goals on Sky highlights and listened on the radio, so the mini-descriptions may be awry. Let’s hope the point gained from 3-0 is vital.

In terms of big chances (rated equal or more than 1 in 4) Swansea had 1, and we had 7. Swansea raced into a 2-0 lead both from Piroe, with low probability efforts (1 in 8 for the opener, that had to be threaded through defenders on the line and 1 in 33 for the second, from 20 yards out that normally goes wide or into Travers’ reach, but this time settled right in the far corner. On 25 minutes Solanke had a good chance saved (38%) and on 51 minutes Anthony was unmarked at the far post but hit the keeper (2 in 5), On 58 minutes it looked all over, Obafemi beating Travers with pure pace at his near post following a counter-attack (1 in 4).

On 72 minutes, the fightback began. Moore finding himself free in the box to head home from Anthony’s corner (1 in 2). 9 minutes later we had a penalty as Manning slid in to a tackle with his hand in the air, which blocked Laird’s cross. Solanke finished as against Fulham (77%). Two minutes later, and Moore was through one on one, but didn’t get a firm connection (46%). There was still time for two more big chances in the same attack. Solanke’s header was saved by Fisher (1 in 2) but the follow-up was turned in by Moore (3 in 5).

Swansea.JPG

Man of the match against Swansea

Solanke

Solanke

Anthony

Anthony

Moore

Moore

Brady

Brady

Someone else

Someone else

Coobster asked…

I actually find these quite interesting, and it doesn’t surprise me we were above 4 goals. But do I read it right we got more than 1 xG for our third actual goal? I would have thought that would count as the same passage of play and should therefore be worked out as the value of the greatest chance of the 2?

Matt Stevenson added…

Yes, you interpreted it correctly. Each shot has its own individual rating, which for simplicity I’ve just added. I could do something more complicated but I think this would be harder to explain. It’s rare to get passages of play over 1, the most obvious would be a penalty save that fell to the taker for a tap in.

It’s a bit like a bug bear of mine in tennis where they say a person saved 5 break points, but lost the game on the sixth, so actually the first 5 meant nothing. – Join the conversation, click here.

Your say…

Red_Dez wrote…

Wasn’t the result I was hoping for but could be another crucial point on the basis that assuming Nottingham Forest win on the weekend, we can take a draw at Blackburn Rovers and go into the head to head with both sides knowing that Forest have to win to get ahead of us with 1 game to play, whilst a win for us will seal promotion. Fine psychological lines perhaps but I’ll take it given where we could have been in the closing minutes of the last 2 games.

Don’t want to be going into that Forest game with them ahead of us. – Join the conversation, click here.

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