Written by sjhafcb
Following Saturday’s result and the reaction that has followed, I thought I’d have a look at what we could and should expect from the 12 games against the Top 6 (Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur)- and what we need from them if we are to have a realistic chance of staying up.
To do this I have looked back across the 3 previous seasons at the results accrued by the 3 teams outside of the relegation zones (15th/16th/17th).
The results are as follows; the aggregate score from those 12 games are in brackets, and the amount of games they picked up at least a point are in square brackets
2021/22
15. Southampton – 11 Points (10-23) [6]
16. Everton – 12 Points (8-23) [6]
17. Leeds United – 0 Points (8-47) [0]
2020/21
15. Southampton- 6 points (14-35) [4]
16. Brighton & Hove Albion – 11 points (11-17) [5]
17. Burnley – 7 points (4-25) [3]
2019/20
15. Brighton & Hove Albion – 11 points (12-27) [4]
16. West Ham United- 10 points (12-24) [4]
17. Aston Villa- 4 points (10-31) [2]
What I then looked at was how AFC Bournemouth did in those games across our 5 previous Premier League seasons
2019/20- 9 points (12-22) [5]
2018/19- 6 points (10-31) [2]
2017/18- 6 points (7-26) [2]
2016/17- 7 points (13-31) [5]
2015/16- 6 points (8-32) [2]
Looking at the above then, I think we realistically need to be looking at 2 wins across the 12 games and anything above that would be a bonus. However, in each of the previous three seasons, there has been a team that’s stayed up having won less than 2 games- in Leeds’ case without even getting a single point.
Interestingly, our best points total came in the relegation season, perhaps this was due to our more counter-attacking style we’d adopted by that stage (some would say to the detriment of overall results vs those teams closer to us).
I guess the point I’m seeking to make is that we now exist within a league containing multiple leagues and we need to be realistic about expectations in these games. As we know, games against teams such as Villa need to be our bread and butter and so far, that’s 3 points out of a possible 3.
Now of course there is an elephant in the room here; style of play + general approach in these game/£ntertainment value. I’ll let others battle that one out for now…. But what I would say is that we haven’t had our 29 goals in a season man for either of those 2 games so far (one of which was against a team we didn’t get a single point against in the 10 games we played them under Eddie Howe’s management).
Your say…
Neil Dawson wrote…
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