Written by Matt Stevenson
Here’s the xG from Leicester. The site I use for the timeline (Infogol) has also appeared to have credited an additional good chance to Leicester, for Vardy, in the 18th minute (rated 1 in 4), It’s not been on any highlights I’ve seen (including Leicester’s), but the Sky commentary suggests Vardy just missed a Maddison cross and thus the xG should be zero. The fact that this was the Foxes best chance shows what little threat they carried. Billing had already hit the outside of the post from a good free kick (rated 1 in 10) and after had opened the scoring following a poor Maddison back pass. The rating of 1 in 6 for the goal seems too low with just the keeper to beat. This was in the 40th minute and we went in 1-0 up, with an xG of Leicester 0.42 (including the phantom Vardy chance) AFCB 0.58. We started the second half strongly, a good move between Billing and Solanke saw Solanke’s shot saved by the outstretched foot of Iverson (42%). Two minutes later we had three chances falling to Mepham (1 in 7), Stephens (1 in 4) and Christie (1 in 20). Five minutes later we had another flurry of chances, the best two falling to Solanke (and rated 1 in7 and 1 in 4). Leicester were still creating little at the hour mark, the xG was Leicester 0.51 and AFCB 2.06. Leicester had a good chance in the 70th minute, from Iheanacho, (1 in 5) but I’d have felt disappointed if VAR hadn’t overturned it for a foul on Mepham if it had gone in. As it was, it went straight at Neto. There was time for another Solanke effort (1 in 8) and a last-minute acrobatic effort from Daka (1 in 9) and that was it. Far from hanging on as we had at Wolves, it felt we could have played much longer and Leicester still wouldn’t have scored. From being at the game, the alternative source xG for Leicester of 0.69 felt more accurate.
Man of the match against LeicesterBilling
Mepham
Neto
Stephens
Rothwell
Solanke
Kelly
Smith
Christie
Someone else
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Unusually, Kelly (5) played as high as Smith (15) with both as close to the halfway line as Lerma. This looks balanced and all of the substitutions (Tavernier (16) for Ouattara (11), Cook for Rothwell and Semenyo for Solanke were all like for like). It was a brave call to remove Ouattara after 38 minutes due to low energy levels and highlighting a possible mistake in the starting line-up, but it’s pleasing that O’Neil didn’t let this sway him from trying to win the game.
We had 34 touches in the opposition’s penalty area, Solanke with 13. Ouattara had 5 despite being on the pitch for only 38 minutes
Our players tried to take on a man 22 times, being successful 8 times which is lower than average. Rothwell tried three times and was successful each time, Solanke, Christie and Tavernier tried 12 times between them succeeding twice.
We had 19 attempts (2 big) noting that chances can be provided after saves, deflections or a defensive error and not created. Thank you Maddison for providing Billing’s big chance. We hit the target 7 times. Brighton had 14 attempts, 1 big, and hit the target 4 times.
There were many fewer tackles (16) than normal, where we have been averaging over 30 a game in the last three. Billing and Tavernier both attempted 3 tackles, Billing being successful twice and Tavernier no times.
KingKieffer said…
Interesting fact, from our top four XGs from games this season, three of them come from the last three games(Everton being the other.) It would seem that we have finally found a way to threaten the opposition’s goal consistently. Hopefully, this will stand us in good stead.
Matt Stevenson replied…
Yes, early on in the season there were plenty of games where we were significantly under 1 xG. Averaging over 2xG in the last three games is a big improvement. We had 1.51 against Brighton, with Spurs only managing 0.83 this weekend.
Other games where we got > 1.5 xG were Fulham A, Leeds A, Forest at H, Newcastle at H, Man C at H, Arsenal A, the majority of which are recent, so maybe it is all coming together. – To join the conversation, click here.
