Stat Attack – Everton v AFCB

Written by Matt Stevenson

Here’s the xG from an Everton game that had very few clear-cut chances. The xG supports the view I had when we left the stadium that we couldn’t grumble too much at losing, but equally, if it had been a draw Everton couldn’t have felt robbed. The first half was tense, AFCB looking to hit on the breakthrough Ouattara, although Brooks was involved with a lot of our good moves. At half time the xG was Everton 0.35 and AFCB 0.40. The only big chance came in the 51st minute which was a tame header by Gray (1 in 2). Six minutes later Everton had gone in front with a great shot from Doucoure past an unsighted Travers (1 in 11). Everton then looked to smother the game, with the xG between the 57th and 80th minutes being Everton 0.00 AFCB 0.08, although there was a lot of time wasted in this period. We always promised to create a chance but the final ball never got through or there was a bad touch and the chance disappeared. Four minutes into the 10 added on Vina connected with a volley (1 in 16) that Pickford beat away. Doucore then brought a save from Travers (1 in 5) before the whistle blew and Evertonians invaded the pitch.

We played 4 at the back with Smith (15) pushing forward lots in the first half. Lerma (8), Christie (10) and Billing (29) were central with Ouattara (11) starting wide left with Brooks (7) having a freer role close to Solanke. (9) Just before the goal Brooks was withdrawn for Vina (18), who played left midfield with (I think) Ouattara switching flanks. 9 minutes later Christie was replaced by Moore (21) who played up front. The third change is harder for me to interpret with Smith coming off for Anthony (32) although Anthony’s position was more central than wide right (although potentially he could have shifted sides).

Senesi had the most touches of the ball with 101 (a record for the season), followed by Kelly on 97. In the opposition half, Kelly had 29 touches with three players (Brooks, Christie and Smith) having 10 in the final third.

We had 15 touches in the opposition’s penalty area, with Brooks having 5 and Ouattara 3.

Senesi attempted the most passes with 92. The average completion rate was 84%, with the best performers being Zabarnyi with 92% and Lerma and Senesi with 89%. Of the starting outfield players three had less than a 75% completion rate (Kelly, Ouattara, and Solanke. Lerma attempted the most passes in the opposition half (25) whilst Brooks made the most passes in the final third (9) despite only having played 57 minutes.

AFCB attempted 15 crosses, being successful twice, Kelly (1 from 1) and Smith (1 from 5).

Our players tried to take on a man 20 times, being successful 6 times. Billing had the highest success rate with 2 from 3 and Brooks was 2 from 6.

We created 5 chances (none big). Everton created 9 chances with none big.

We had 7 attempts (none big) noting that chances can be provided after saves, deflections, or a defensive error and not created. We hit the target once. Everton had 13 attempts, 1 big, hitting the target six times.

AFCB won 18 of 39 aerial duals with Brooks and Christie both winning 2 from 2 and Moore 3 from 5. Solanke up against the big centre backs won 1 from 5.

We made 20 tackles winning 12 with Billing winning the most tackles (3 from 3).

Kelly had the most defensive actions with 18. Christie made the most interceptions (3) Kelly made most recoveries (9) and clearances (8), with Anthony and Kelly making our 2 blocks (2). In what is probably his last game for us Lerma was unusually quiet, he often has the highest defensive action and is normally in the top 3, but yesterday was joint lowest of all of the starters. It was that surprising I has to check I’d got the right player data.

Kicks_On_66 added…

Below is the running record for xG across the Premier League season:

These figures shifted up after the first 8 matches (ending with the home draw with Brentford.) The two points up around 2.5 are statistical outliers, with the second one (home win against Fulham) marking the beginning of another shift up. The final four losses marked a return to anemic offensive punch. We finished 18th in the EPL for xG (only Saints and Wolves were worse.) However, the average xG during our good run starting with Fulham at home is about 1.5 per match, which would be more like a top-8 pace.

Here is the running record for xG against (xGA):

This series includes no statistical signals like those found in the xG series. That concerns me as it suggests that we indeed never did sort out our set piece defending. We finished 17th in the EPL for xGA (Forest, Everton, and Leeds were worse.) – To join the conversation, click here.