Stat Attack – Brighton v AFCB

Written by Matt Stevenson

More late sadness in the Brighton game where we nearly took a point that I’d suspect most would have taken at the start of the day, but which looked less valuable after Everton had beaten Arsenal and Wolves were three up against Liverpool. I’ve given two timelines because of the craziness of the 13th minute. Neto kicking the ball to Undav which resulted in him having 3 shots (one of which was excellently blocked by Mepham) with an added xG of 1.47. The second chart shows the multiplicative impact (where it is assumed no additional xG were a goal scored which reduced the xG to 0.87. Apart from this minute, there were only two big chances (greater than 1 in 5) which both fell to Welbeck. The first was a header (3 in 10) that went straight at Neto, the second was a cross slightly too far in front of him that he grazed wide (44%). AFCB’s best chance fell to Lerma who slid in to meet Anthony’s cross but put it inches wide under pressure. Although, there was another strong penalty appeal – Sky’s live commentary said AFCB were ‘unlucky not to get a penalty’, which along with ‘unlucky to give away a penalty’ are the phrases that partially summarise this season so far. The xG at half time was Brighton 2.61 (or 1.97 depending on how calculated) and AFCB 0.30. The second half was better for Bournemouth, as it was a drab affair with no big chances, the best being Semenyo’s blocked shot and a total of Brighton 0.44 and AFCB 0.67. If we hadn’t conceded late, we’d probably had looked back on a hard-fought point, but we did with Mitoma sneaking into space between three Bournemouth players to head in well (1 in 12). Certainly, the decision to substitute Anthony with Vina is a discussion point, (see later) with the xG between Rothwell’s coming on and Vina coming on being Brighton 0.02 and AFCB 0.44. After it was Brighton 0.27 and AFCB 0.08.

In general, the average positional map looks unremarkable, with two central defenders, Mepham (6) and Senesi (25), two advanced full-backs Smith (15) and Zemura (33) alongside Lerma (8) and Billing (29) who sat deep, with the front four more or less similarly advanced. Christie for Traore seemed a pre-planned sub as we ease Traore in, but Billing’s injury meant another substitution slot used with Rothwell coming on, but averaging a position behind the centre backs, this showed that we were playing deeper, but looking to hit on the counter, and the xG was in our favour up until the Vina (18) substitution. Vina’s positioning showed how far we retreated with this change and is the only time I can recall an outfield player playing over 10 minutes having an average position in our box. Withdrawing an attacking winger, Anthony (32) for Vina may have changed the momentum of the game.

Neto had the most touches in the game, followed by Zemura and Senesi; Billing looked likely to have most if he had not been injured two-thirds of the way through. Anthony and Traore had the most touches in Brighton’s half, which is impressive for Traore as he was withdrawn around the hour mark. Outtarra had the most touches in the penalty area (6) followed by Anthony (5).

Billing and Senesi attempted the most passes (31) followed by Neto. In Brighton’s half, most passes were played by Anthony and Lerma. Assuming the reported stats are correct, the 264 passes attempted was much lower than normal, for example, there was 359 against Forest and 435 versus Brentford. I don’t know whether this is due to a feature of Brighton’s play. Ignoring Vina’s 1 pass and 1 completion, Billing, Lerma and Anthony all had completion rates of 85% or higher. Traore’s was the lowest with 59% (10 passes completed out of 17)

AFCB attempted 12 crosses, being successful with 5 (Traore completing most with 2 from 3). Our players tried to take on a man 20 times, being successful 9 times (Traore and Zemura being successful twice).

AFCB won 16 of 23 aerials duals in the match with Outtara and Semenyo being impressive (7 from 8 and 4 from 6 respectively)

Smith made the most tackles (5) but only won 1; Zemura won all 4 of his tackles. As a team, Bournemouth won 20 of 29 tackles.

As is often the case, Lerma had the most defensive actions (14), with Senesi, Billing, Neto and Outtara making 10 or more.

Your say…

Kicks_On_66 wrote…

Somebody posted elsewhere the comparison between the first halves of the 9-0 Liverpool loss and this Brighton match. They were almost identical. That result is consistent with the xG plots in this thread. I wrote at halftime that we were lucky to not be down 3-0 or 3-1, and I think the information here supports that. It also supports, to a lesser degree, that something very bad happened late in the game (aside from conceding, obviously). The second half was a plodding affair, but we were holding our own and should have just stayed the course in terms of formation and intent. – To join the conversation, click here.