Stat Attack – Bournemouth v Brighton

Written by Matt Stevenson

Here is the xG from the Brighton game where we got caught with two good goals at the start of each half. There are big jumps in the Brighton xG timelines as they had few shots (6) but created two big chances, a characteristic noted in the preview. In 3 minutes, we were behind. It was a very good move, with Rutter nutmegging Adams with a pass, picking up the return and hitting a ferocious shot (rated 1 in 50 from that position) which Kepa pushed away (on live radio commentary this got called a brilliant save) but Pedro got to the rebound quicker than Kerkez to score (3 in 10). Brighton appeared to be sitting back, frustrating us and looking to counter, which meant the rest of the half didn’t have many good chances, with 1 in 10 efforts for Evanilson and Semenyo and a 1 in 5 attempt from Kluivert and a goal disallowed for offside. The xG at half time, was AFCB 0.50 and Brighton 0.33.

The second half started with Brighton chances, Kerkez blocked well from Rutter (1 in 6), before Brighton scored a very well-worked goal. A clever pass found Mitoma, who was on the edge of offside and fired into the far corner with Kepa having no chance. Five minutes later Evanilson had a good chance (17%) that he put wide. The next event, on the hour, was a second yellow for Baleba (I’d have been angry if this had been given against us) meaning AFCB were playing against 10 men, although we struggled to create any chances in the next 15 minutes with the atmosphere (via the radio) sounding flat. We had two quick-fire chances in the 77th and 80th minutes, both headers from Evanilson (1 in 8) and Unal (1 in 5), then chances in the 87th and 88th minutes (both 1 in 12) with a shot from Evanilson blocked and a header from Semenyo missing the target. In the 92nd minute, we did break through from Brooks, fed by Unal who appeared to toe-poke into the far top corner (1 in 11). In the last minutes, Huijsen had a header blocked (rated 1 in 5) and from a corner, Semenyo smacked a very tough chance (1 in 40) against the crossbar. It was an exciting end to what had sounded a drab match. The final xG was AFCB 1.63 and Brighton 0.94, with understat having a similar margin with AFCB 1.91 and Brighton 1.23.

Man of the match against Brighton Brooks Vote Semenyo Vote Huijsen Vote Adams Vote O. Dango Vote Kerkez Vote Unal Vote Someone else Vote

There was 1 enforced change to the team who lost at Brentford as Christie was suspended, with Tavernier coming into the starting line up. There were no real surprises with the only potential debate being whether Semenyo (24) would play on the right or the left. It was the left, with Tavernier (16) on the right, with Kluivert (19) in the CAM role. The first change came in the 65th minute, with AFCB 2-0 down, with Huijsen (2) replacing Senesi in a like-for-like swap and Brooks (7) replacing Adams (12). I’m not sure how this left our central midfield but note that Brighton were down to 10 men and so we may have had both Tavernier and Kluivert in aggressive midfield positions. In the 72nd minute, Smith (15) was replaced by Aarons (37) in a straight swap and Ouattara (11) replaced Kluivert. This may have pushed Semenyo further infield. In the 80th minute, Unal (26) was brought on, allowing us to go two up top, with Kerkez (3) substituted and with Ouattara dropping back into a nominal left-back role.