Stat Attack – Aston Villa v AFCB

Written by Matt Stevenson

Here’s the xG from a disappointing performance. Although at 75 minutes I certainly hadn’t written off our chances. Villa took the lead early on, a deflected shot from Watkins found Bailey who went past Kelly and squared the ball to an unmarked Luiz in the box (55%). Luiz’s run was clever having come back from an offside position and with defenders not clear as to who should be picking him up. We had a big chance (about 1 in 4) from Anthony in the 10th minute, from the left-hand side of the goal. The next half-chance was from Ouattara (rated as 1 in 5) which might be a header that was cleared from the line (being at ground level didn’t help to perceive depth) which was closely followed by Neto stopping well from Watkins (approaching 1 in 3). After this burst of action, not much happened for about 40 minutes, with Villa content to time waste and sit on 1-0. The main highlights were a blasted free kick by Billing that Martinez tipped over and Solanke being put through one on one, but dithered (maybe due to a lack of confidence) which allowed Mings to get back and block, and also heavily reduce the xG.

When we made a sub (Brooks for Smith) the xG was Villa 1.46 AFCB 0.96. Whatever the reason, after this substitution the game turned and the xG until the end of the game was Villa 1.74 AFCB 0.00. Villa had three big chances, the second goal where Ramsey went around Stephens and slotted under Neto’s arm (it was either well planned or not hit correctly) which was rated 37%. The next large chance was from Mings which was well saved by Neto (2 in 5) and then there was Villa’s third goal. A flick on left Buendia unmarked in front of Neto to head in (56%). It was a disappointing capitulation in the last 10 minutes, but before that, it was fairly even.

Man of the match against Aston Villa Neto Vote O. Dango Vote Traore Vote Rothwell Vote Someone else Vote

For the majority of the game the average positions are largely unremarkable, a standard back four, three within the middle, two wingers and a target man. The first set of substitutions changed this slightly with Rothwell (14) and Anthony (32) being replaced by Traore (22) and Semenyo (24). Both moved left of centre, with Billing (29) presumably dropping more central. The next substitution was heart-warming being the return of Brooks (7) for Smith (15). Villa had made it 2 nil before the tactics paper had been handed around the team but possibly we were going to shift to a back 3, and have Brooks (7) and one other as the wide men. However, this didn’t work, and we were under constant pressure as witnessed by Brooks’s average position. Subs were made in the final minutes with Ouattara and Billing being replaced with Vina and Moore, although there was not enough time to work out this formation.

Senesi had the most touches (71) closely followed by Kelly with 70 then Stephens with 61. Anthony and Ouattara had the most touches in Villa’s half (24) with Ouattara having 21 touches in the final third, followed by Solanke with 18. We had 25 touches in the opposition’s penalty area, Solanke with 10 and Ouattara with 6 having the most. Brooks only managed 4 touches whilst on, all in our own half, Moore didn’t get a touch of the ball.

Senesi attempted the most passes with 56, followed by Kelly with 51 and Stephens with 45. This was probably caused by Villa sitting back after taking the lead with the ball being played around the AFCB defence. This also probably contributed to the high completion rates (84% in total) We attempted 53 passes in the Villa final third and were successful with 46.

AFCB attempted 15 crosses, being successful with 5, from 5 separate players.

Our players tried to take on a man 25 times, being successful 12 times. Ouattara made the most attempts with 5 successful take-ons (from 8) although Rothwell did well with 4 successful attempts from 4.

We created 8 chances (although none were big). Villa created 17 chances, with 5 big. Traore made the most chances (3) despite coming on in the 59th minute and played the through ball putting Solanke through.

We had 10 attempts (1 big) noting that chances can be provided after saves or a defensive error and not created. This big chance was for Anthony who if I remember correctly dispossessed an opponent. We hit the target 3 times. Villa had 20 attempts, 5 big, and hit the target 9 times.

AFCB won 9 of 16 aerials duals. Senesi won 3 from 3, and Lerma won 3 from 4.

Traore and Ouattara made the most tackles (7) although Traore had limited game time. As a team, Bournemouth won 20 of 39 tackles.

Lerma had the most defensive actions with 15. Lerma and Stephens made the most interceptions, Billing made the most recoveries, Senesi made the most clearances and Lerma made the most blocks.

Your say…

USCherry wrote…

The way we defend set pieces I am surprised that the stattos don’t start rating corners against us as a 1 in 5 chance

Just out of interest and I apologize if you already have answered this. But it looks like the last goal, rated 56% but seems to show on the graph as 0.7 xG. Does the % correlate to xG somehow differently to e.g. 25% = .25 xG

Matt Stevenson replied…

Eagle Eyes there.

It is actually two chances here, as Mings’ flick-on was counted as an attempt and was judged to have its own rating of 0.10 so it was a combination of 0.1+0.56 to make a total for 0.66.

For simplicity, I ignore multiple chances, unless the summed xG goes above 1, but I think it should really only total 0.604 as if Mings had scored you wouldn’t get the 0.56 chance. But given the error bars in the xG scores I’m happy to ignore this and save myself some work. – To join the conversation, click here.