Written by Matt Stevenson
Here’s the xG from a tight Chelsea game which going into the last 15 minutes could have gone either way. The first big chance put Chelsea 1-0 up, Gallagher heading in, although there will be discussions between Lerma and Smith over who should have picked him up. The chance was rated 1 in 3. The first half saw few chances, but AFCB equalised following a brilliant free-flowing move that saw Cina cut back onto his right foot and curl one just inside the far post (1 in 20). At half time it was 1-1 with the xG being AFCB 0.24 Chelsea 0.65. The second half took a while to get going, with only half chances until the last 15 minutes, although they had been an AFCB penalty shout, ignored by the referee that VAR did not overturn. Live, it looked like Silva had made a good tackle, so I don’t blame the ref, but replays show he played Solanke’s foot. Technically it was a penalty, but there is a blurred line between technically, and ‘clear and obvious’. As the penalty was not given, there is no xG (0.8) boost. The game’s biggest chance came in the 79th minute. Lerma headed a corner back across goal for Ouattara who headed over (1 in 2). Three minutes later, we were behind, Badiashile escaping a marker to score from about 8 yards (1 in 2). In the final minutes, Felix made it 3-1 (1 in 11) following a mazy Sterling run, where both Smith and Senesi went wide to the winger allowing Sterling to break through the centre. A disappointing result, but the performance wasn’t something to be downbeat about as on another day we could have won this game.
Man of the match against Chelsea
Vina
O. Dango
Christie
Senesi
Billing
Lerma
Neto
Someone else
The average positions show a near 2-4-3-1 formation. Surprisingly Smith (15) and Vina (18) have similar advancement as Vina’s attacking stats (more later) were so high. The changes were largely like for like: Anthony (32) playing where Christie (10) had and Semenyo (24) playing where Billing had (29) although Cook (4) played noticeably deeper than Rothwell (14). After the Cook for Rothwell substitution, we had the penalty shout and the Ouattara chance, so it wasn’t as though this swung the momentum.
We had 25 touches in the opposition’s penalty area, with Ouattara and Vina having 6 each.
Our players tried to take on a man 16 times, being successful 8 times. Vina had a 100% record and joint top number of successes with 2.
We had 10 attempts (1 big) noting that chances can be provided after saves, deflections or a defensive error and not created. We hit the target 4 times. Chelsea had 11 attempts, 2 big, hitting the target five times.
We made 31 tackles winning 16 with Ouattara and Kelly both winning 2 out of 3. A notable statistic was that Vina only won 1 of 7 tackles. There appears to be a trade off to be made in the Uruguayan’s attacking prowess and tackling ability.
