Written by Matt Stevenson
I’m comfortable accepting that I don’t understand the nuances of elite-level football, so I’ll present the stats objectively and let others argue. I have no agenda, apart from seeing how biased I am in our favour when watching a match.
The stats that I’m using may have limitations that we will have to live with / modify how much we trust any conclusions. I’m happy to answer questions on what I’ve done, and my understanding of the data sources though.
I’ve taken xG data from infogol on a PC [the mobile version gives slightly different numbers], as it allows a timeline to be formed. All other data have been taken from Fantasy Football Scout (and adapted to not break copyright). The adaptations may lead to slight errors in position-based stats. Hopefully, some people will find these interesting.
Here’s the xG from the Villa game. There were very few good chances, with only four chances rated 1 in 10 or better, three from us and one from Villa. The first chance was Lerma’s goal, rated 1 in 7, which put us 1 up, driving through a crowd scene. Ings had a good chance (1 in 9) soon after that he put straight at Travers. Still, within an eventful first 10 minutes, Solanke had a chance (1 in 10) saved by Martinez. The next big chance fell to Adam Smith (15%) on 22 minutes although I think he wasn’t shooting for the far post but crossing to Moore although it was slightly in front on the onrushing striker. The game was then subdued, as it was surprising how little threat Villa posed, with lots of shots from distance and there was no onus on AFCB to take any risks. We did seal the game with a second though, a deep cross from Kelly finding Moore, who would have been delighted to have the space to be able to pick his spot unchallenged and thump a header past Martinez. (rated 1 in 16). The fact that Villa mustered only three small chances despite being two down against a relegation favourite who are in the market for new centre defenders, summed up their day, which must concern the travelling fans.
Man of the Match against Aston VillaKelly
Tavernier
Mepham
Lerma
Billing
Moore
Travers
Zemura
Someone else
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I’ve looked at the average position for the starting 11. I suspect this team surprised many and it appears as though Solanke was less advanced than both Moore and Tavernier. Mepham was the middle of the back three and was deeper than both Lerma and Kelly with Billing reverting from a attacking midfield position to a standard midfield role appearing to be more or less level with Pearson, with Zemura and Smith similarly placed.
The change in role for Solanke impacted his influence on the game as he had the least number of touches (Mepham had most) with Smith having more touches in the final third and Zemura only having one fewer than Solanke.
Mepham had the most passes which was due to the number of short goal kicks that tested the nerves of the fans. Solanke had fewest with 8. Mepham also had the highest completion rate, closely followed by Billing, all players were above 55%. Moore, Billing, Smith and Tavernier had the most passes in Villa’s half
Villa didn’t target our relatively little wing-backs aerial, nor Lerma who didn’t contest a duel. Mepham and Moore had the most duels, with Mepham being successful (71%) more than Moore (29%)
Lerma also only made 1 tackle. Billing, Smith, Moore, Pearson and Kelly had most tackles, although Smith only won one of 5.
Billing made most interceptions and the second highest number of recoveries (behind Tavernier). Mepham made most clearances followed by Kelly, which is typical for centre backs, but again Lerma was low, suggesting Villa may have been targeting the left-hand side of our defence more than the right.
With possibly the hardest game of the season up next, the 11 who started versus Villa may not be the team or formation for Man City away, but it brought us 3 points and gave many AFCB fans a happy Saturday night.
AFCB_Liam wrote…
Genuinely don’t understand Villa having a higher overall XG than us. They literally had that Ings chance and nothing else of note from what I remember? What am I missing from the 2nd half? Also surely that Lerma chance isn’t 1 in 10? He was a few yards out with the goal at his mercy. I’m generally a fan of xG but this one confuses me.
Matt Stevenson replied…
I was really surprised by this too. I’d texted a Villa friend saying we’d been comfortable. I guess it comes down to both
1) the sheer number of shots, which were recorded as 7 (AFCB) vs 15 (Villa), 15 shots for 0.69 is one of the worst ratios I’ve ever seen, below 0.05 on average and
2) the low rating of Lerma’s chance. I suspect that this is due to a large number of players between Jeff and the goal. I’m still not sure if it took a slight deflection, but I’ve certainly seen them hit someone (including your own player) and go out. I think Dom did well to move out of the way. – Join the conversation, click here.
