AFCB Vital Match Zone

Stat Attack – AFC Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest

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Written by Matt Stevenson

Here is the xG from the N Forest game that sounded awful on the radio. This appears to be supported by the lack of big chances (just 1 for Kluivert’s tap in). We went ahead early with Sinisterra flicking on a Cook corner that was going in (rated 0.06) before Kluivert touched it home on the line (only rated 0.81, which seems low). That was pretty much it in for our chances for the game beyond some scrappy half-chances. Forest offered little more having a 1 in 7 chance from Awonyi in the 15th minute. However, just before the break, the fall fell for Hudson-Odoi after AFCB missed three chances to clear the ball and he finished well (1 in 30). At half time the xG was AFCB 0.99 N Forest 0.40). The second half was poor with only an effort from Tavernier in the 71st minute being 1 in 10 or greater. Despite AFCB going down to 10 men in the 83rd minute, N Forest only managed 1 attempt at goal which was a 1 in 50 chance from Gibbs-White. The final xG was AFCB 1.19 N Forest 0.46. Opta had the game as slightly better with xGs of 1.27 and 0.53 respectively.

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Man of the match against Nottm Forest











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The formation shows that Smith (15) and Kelly (5) played as high as Cook (4) and Christie (10). Kluivert (19) was the furthest forward with Sinisterra (17) and Solanke (9) either side. The first sub was like for like at right wing with Tavernier (16) coming on for Semenyo who had had a knock. The second change was Scott (14) for an injured Christie (10) and Philip (29) coming on for Kluivert who was dangerously close to a second yellow. Philip’s average position suggests he was more a central midfielder than a No 10 role. Ouattara (11) replaced Sinisterra and just before the red card Kerkez (3) came on for Kelly (5). Kerkez’s position was more central, and Ouattara may also have played more defensively once we were down to 10 men.

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Kelly had most touches with 61 followed by Cook with 59. Sinisterra had the most touches in the opposition half (46) and in the final third with 37.


We had 23 touches in the opposition’s penalty area with Sinisterra having 10 and Kluivert 6.

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Senesi attempted 43 passes. Sinisterra attempted most in the opposition’s half (26)and in the final third with 21. We averaged 69% completion, with no one in the starting eleven having a completion percentage above 80%.

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AFCB attempted 23 crosses, being successful with 3, which is a poor return. Although the goal came from Cook’s corner to Sinisterra.


Our players tried to take on a man 30 times being successful 10 times. Sinisterra and Tavernier both tried 6 times, Sinisterra successful 3 times and Tavernier once

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We created 7 chances (1 big, Sinisterra’s goal-bound effort). N Forest created 6 chances with none big.

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We had 9 attempts (one big for Kluivert) noting that chances can be provided after saves, deflections or a defensive error and not created. We hit the target once. N Forest had 8 attempts, none big, and hit the target 6 times. Kluivert and Sinisterra had 3 shots each.


AFCB won 15 of 38 aerials duals. Cook won 3 from 3


We won 15 out of 20 tackles. Ouattara and Sinisterra both won 2 from 2.


Neto made the most defensive actions with 12 (all recoveries). Cook made the most interceptions (3), Neto made the most recoveries (12), Kelly and Zabarnyi made the most clearances (3) and no AFCB player made a block.


According to Opta, AFCB made no errors leading to chances or goals.

The foul count was AFCB 19, N Forest 12. Kluivert made the most fouls (5) with Semenyo, Sinisterra, and Tavernier fouled twice each. This was the most fouls conceded by AFCB this season.


The Opta expected goals had Kluivert (1.00) as the most likely to score for AFCB with Sinisterra (0.33) next. For assists, Cook was highest with 0.31 with Sinisterra (0.14) next.

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Your say…

SlowDownDerek said…

A good example of the vulnerability of xG to nuances. We’d have lost the xG if Kluivert hadn’t got a touch and stolen Sinisterra’s goal. It’s confirmed what we all knew though… That second half was turgid. – To join the conversation, click here.

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