Stat Attack: AFC Bournemouth v Newcastle United

Written by Matt Stevenson

Here is the xG timeline from the Newcastle game, although the incidents in the last 5 minutes will not appear (as shots from “fouls” and fouls are not recorded. The first half was largely uneventful with Newcastle dominating the ball early on, but AFCB came back into the game, with Semenyo hitting the bar from long-range (rated 1 in 50). There was one big chance which was Tavernier’s goal (rated 81%) although at home I was holding my breath in case there was an offside call. At half time, the xG was AFCB 0.99 and Newcastle 0.15. The second half started with a flurry of minor chances for Newcastle until we imposed ourselves again and created a big chance for Evanilson (rated 7 in 10). This value is high as he was stretching and just couldn’t reach it, think Gascoigne in Euro 96, and was just unlucky not to have made meaningful contact. Immediately after this, Christie was replaced by Scott and AFCB lost their way. Newcastle had 3 big chances in the next 5 minutes, with Barnes firing just past the far post (1 in 6), Isak having a header blocked (1 in 9) and Neto saving from Joelinton (1 in 3). In the 76th minute, it was 1-1, good play from Barnes crossing deep to the far post where Gordon was waiting (45%). AFCB were hanging on, although Scott fizzed one wide (rated 1 in 33) and Ouattara headed wide (rated 1 in 8), Burn had a header saved in the 81st minute (1 in 5) and with the way the momentum had changed, I’d have taken the draw if offered it. There were no more major chances recorded by xG in the game, although Ouattara’s goal does not count due to VAR intervention. It will be discussed heavily on the message board so I’ll not comment beyond saying that at the time of writing, there has been near unanimous consensus that it was the wrong decision. The Joelinton foul does not show up in the xG timeline, but as it happened with hardly any time left it would have unlikely made a difference. The final xG was AFCB 2.26 and Newcastle 1.69. Understat had a similar margin at 2.54 vs 1.89, but the xG does not tell the whole story.

Man of the match against Newcastle Tavernier Vote Semenyo Vote Neto Vote Cook Vote Senesi Vote Evanilson Vote Zabarnyi Vote Christie Vote Kluivert Vote Someone else Vote

There were 5 changes to the team although none were real surprises. Araujo came in for Smith and Senesi (5) for Huijsen. Christie (15) came in for Scott, Kluivert (17) for Ouattara and Evanilson (9) for Sinisterra, although 4 of those benched came on, showing it will be a squad game. The shape was typical, with Araujo (28) and Kerkez (3) playing more advanced than the centre backs (Senesi (5) and Zabarnyi (27) with Cook (4) and Christie (10) holding. We started with Semenyo (24) on the right, Tavernier (16) on the left with Kluivert (19) nominally behind Evanilson (9) although he often pushed further forward when pressing defenders, as he also did with Solanke. The first change was on 64 minutes (and it appeared pivotal), Christie was replaced, presumably as he was still recovering from injury and was on a booking to be replaced by Scott (14) and we lost control (see the xG timeline). On 72 minutes Evanilson and Kluivert were replaced by Ouattara (11) and Sinisterra (17) which meant we didn’t have a focal point up top. From the TV, I wasn’t sure who was playing centre forward as Tavernier and Sinisterra switched about. In the 86th minute at 1-1, we took off Tavernier for Jebberson (21) which regained some shape as he played as a 9, and a like-for-like swap with Smith (15) for Araujo.

Senesi and Cook had an equal number of touches with 59. Semenyo had the most touches in the opposition half with 40, closely followed by Tavernier (39). Tavernier had had most touches in the final third with 31 followed by Semenyo with 30.

Our players tried to take on a man 15 times being successful 2 times (once by Evanilson and once by Kluivert). Semenyo tried 4 times but was unsuccessful each time.

Cook attempted the most passes with 41, with Senesi and Zabarnyi attempting 40 each. Cook and Semenyo attempted most in the opposition’s half (21) with Tavernier attempting most in the final third with 14. We averaged 76% completion with Semenyo, Christie, and Tavernier of the starting 11, having values of 85% and over.

AFCB players were tackled 21 times, Semenyo was tackled 7 times and Tavernier four times.

AFCB attempted 19 crosses, being successful with 4. Cook was successful with 2, which would have been 3 had Ouattara’s goal not been disallowed.

AFCB created 14 chances (3 big). Semenyo set up 2 big chances with Cook setting up the other big chance. Newcastle created 14 chances, four big.

We had 16 attempts (2 big) noting that chances can be provided after saves, deflections, or a defensive error and not created. We hit the target 4 times. Newcastle had 14 attempts, 3 big, and hit the target 5 times. Semenyo had 7 attempts each, with the big chances falling to Tavernier and Evanilson.

AFCB had 25 touches in the opposition’s penalty area with Semenyo having 11. Newcastle had 31 touches in our penalty area.

The foul count was AFCB 19, Newcastle 8. Cook made most fouls (5). Evanilson and Neto were both fouled two times.

According to Opta, AFCB made no errors leading to a chance

AFCB won 14 of 23 aerial duals. Zabarnyi won most (3) from 5 duels

AFCB won 22 of 28 tackles. Tavernier won 3 from 3, Kerkez won 2 from 2 and Cook won 5 from 6.

Senesi and Zabarnyi made joint-most defensive actions with 17. Cook made the most interceptions (2), and Christie and Zarbanyi made joint- most recoveries (9). Zabarnyi made the most clearances (7). Senesi made most blocks (2).

The Opta expected goals had Tavernier as most likely to score (0.87) followed by Evanilson at 0.81 and Semenyo (0.33). For expected assists, Semenyo (1.13) was top, followed by Cook (0.31) and Kluivert (0.20).