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Preston v AFCB – xG timeline

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Written by Matt Stevenson

I managed to make this game. When putting this together, it was interesting that ‘the event’ of a day out with an 8-year-old, distracted me from seeing what a dull game it was in terms of clear chances. There was only one chance rated above 1 in 10, this being our goal, which was 76%. However, this seems low as I’d have backed most of the travelling fans to have scored from the position once Lowe had taken it around the keeper.

There isn’t much to comment on, chances-wise. Archer’s equaliser squirming through Kelly and Phillips challenges, and in off the post was rated 1 in 16. Philips doing very well with a hard chance (1 in 25) that Iverson excellently clawed away, and then their winner, (also 1 in 25) with Travers looked suspiciously close to his near post when the shot was taken (but I’m not a keeper, and he has been excellent). Iverson’s save was spectacular, and I thought it was in, although I still think Henderson’s save from Fraser at Bramall Lane was better.

On another day, the ref may have blown for the fouls in the build-up to both Preston goals, I’m not so sure for the challenge on Cantwell, although they are regularly given, but the one on Billing was undeniable. It felt like we were worth a point live, but I’m trying to be philosophical, with no late goals (>88 mins), we’d have 3 points from the last 3, but we took 6.

Preston.JPG

Man of the match against Preston?

Lowe

Lowe

Anthony

Anthony

Zemura

Zemura

Phillips

Phillips

L. Cook

L. Cook

Someone else

Someone else

Your say…

AFCB_Liam wrote…

Quite insightful. We simply didn’t do enough to deserve to win that game so cannot claim to be particularly unlucky. We’ve been bailed out by heroics from Travers and last-minute goals of late, so what goes around comes around.

I know there are plenty of xG haters out there, but the way I see it, it proves that we’re just not creating enough and so are very dependent on taking the chances we do create.

To use a cricket analogy, good teams bowl consistently in the right places which ultimately creates enough chances so that dropped catches matter less. Same for us, if we get the ball in to good areas and create multiple chances, we’ve got the quality to make it count. But tapping it around safely in defence and midfield is just a waste of the talent we do have and levels the playing field. It’s not like we’re tiring out the opposition with that play if it’s all in front of them.

Next 3 games we really need to let the handbrake off and trust that we have the quality to make it count. – Join the conversation, click here.

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