On Monday, Southampton make the short trip across the New Forest and down to the coast to take on AFC Bournemouth.
With Southampton supporters getting pretentious about their “South Coast Derby” with Portsmouth, this game, despite it being a fixture between AFC Bournemouth’s closest geographical neighbours in the football league, must not ever be referred to as a “derby”, apparently.
It’s also not a rivalry because it apparently is not reciprocal. Some AFC Bournemouth supporters, as is the way with football and tribalism, have a natural dislike of their nearest neighbours in football terms. But this should be dismissed according to some Southampton supporters, because of their rivalry with Portsmouth. Many clubs up and down the land have rivalries with numerous clubs, but Southampton supporters aim all their efforts and focus at Portsmouth.
No doubt it is it a fierce rivalry, potentially one of the fiercest in English football, entrenched in history, both football and geographically, but its protectionism is curious considering it’s only been played 17 times in the past 50 years, 11 times in the league and only 4 times in the Premier League.
In contrast, the AFC Bournemouth – Southampton rivalry has little history, but this will be the 17th meeting between the two sides since 2010. With 14 league meetings already played and this being the 13th in the Premier League. An entire generation of supporters has seen this south coast fixture on a regular basis during their lifetime.
This will never be “the south coast derby”, there’s no argument about that. It might not ever be considered a derby by Southampton supporters. But statistically, this is more than just your standard league meeting and surely that can be enjoyed? Emotionally, it certainly is for AFC Bournemouth supporters who have seen numerous potential Cherries supporters lost to Southampton, head to any train station in the area on a Southampton home match day and watch them flood the trains as they zip through Bournemouth Central. Over time, with AFC Bournemouth’s prolonged stay in the top two divisions over the past decade, maybe that will change.
So sticking with statistics and data…my dubious segway moves on to chances created by the two sides so far this season.
AFC Bournemouth v Southampton
AFCB Win
Draw
Southampton Win
xG is a dataset created to show how many chances a team creates over the course of a game, or add that up across a season to see whether or not sides are underperforming over overperforming based on the quality of the chances they create.
So far this season, both Southampton and AFC Bournemouth sit as two of the three worst performing sides, sandwiching Manchester United.
Southampton have created an xG of 7.09 from their start to the current campaign, but have only converted that to 2 goals.
AFC Bournemouth have created an xG of 8.71 and have scored 5 times.
Only Southampton have a worse xG differential than #mufc in the Premier League so far this season. [@SkySports] pic.twitter.com/cQZy7gOcAC
— SQ 🔰 (@SQUnited10) September 26, 2024
Ultimately, people will look at sides creating the most chances knowing that eventually the goals will come.
Speaking to the Daily Echo, AFC Bournemouth head coach Andoni Iraola said…
“I think it’s good numbers to have, Numbers don’t give you points, but I think we are having our chances.
“We are creating things.
“I feel like the wingers, the forwards, the number ten are having chances, are being a threat for the opposition.
“I hope they can continue like this because I think the most important thing is to have the chances to get there, to play a lot in the last third and then I trust my players to finish it also and to score the goals.”
Man United have three players in the top six for highest xG differential which measures quality of chances to goals scored 🔴 pic.twitter.com/kG4OU8opMh
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) September 26, 2024
In regards to AFC Bournemouth, a lot of the focus has been on Evanilson, who is yet to find his scoring boots after being tasked with the job to fill the void left by Dominic Solanke’s move to Tottenham Hotspur.
Speaking about xG (expected goals) statistics, Iraola added…
“We have talked about the position we have, probably this number will get lower and will not be the same,” Iraola said. “It’s very early to take conclusions. I want to be always a team that creates chances, but now it’s going to be more difficult, obviously, against Chelsea, against Liverpool, against these teams.
“I think we have to be probably more clinical.”
Matt Stevenson
Obviously the standard xG/ xA limitations apply, plus I haven’t done it per 90 mins as just a quick response. Just the top 5 too.
In terms of xG (goals)
Tavernier 2.08 (1)
Evanilson 1.96 (0)
Semenyo 1.86 (2)
Sinisterra 1.01 (1)
Kluivert 0.56 (0)
In terms of xA (assists)
Semenyo 1.25 (1)
Ouattara 0.80 (1)
Cook 0.74 (0)
Tavernier 0.71 (0)
Kluivert 0.51 (1)
Evanilson has an xA of 0.39
Jamie Redknapp 🆚 xG was not the battle we had on our bingo card this weekend 😅 pic.twitter.com/HOXwReCxxl
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) September 15, 2024
Will either side find their scoring boots on Monday? Perhaps the motivation of a not a derby, but a close geographical contest, between two sides which have contrasting feelings towards one another will spur them on?
Your say…
dragonm8 said…
We seem to be playing a completely different game to when we had Dom.
The set up seems different.
Liverpool had the measure of how we set up and scored 2 goals with accurate long balls that split our defence in two.
We attempt the same strategy, but we just don’t have the accuracy with the long balls like Liverpool do.
We have played some of the better teams, and after 2 ‘easier’ games we have another run of hard games.
We have to thump Southampton and get some sort of groove going to get the confidence flowing amongst the team. – To join the conversation, click here.
