AFCB Vital Match Zone

Can Bournemouth get at least a point at Aston Villa?

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Written by billythekid

After that win against Arsenal, the Cherries next game is away in the Midlands against Aston Villa on Saturday at 3 pm, this will be a tough game. Under Unai Emery as manager, his side finished fourth last season with 68 points, their highest Premier League place since 1995-96 when they finished fourth with 63 points. This season after eight games, Villa are on 17 points, last season after the same number of games they were on 16 points.

Aston Villa v AFC Bournemouth

Villa Win

Villa Win

Draw

Draw

AFCB Win

AFCB Win

They have only lost one game so far this season and that was at home against our previous opponents Arsenal. In their four home games, they have beaten Everton 3-2, Wolves 3-1. Drew 0-0 with Manchester United and lost 0-2 against Arsenal. Away from home in the opening game of the season, they beat West Ham 1-2 and also had the same result against Leicester City. They drew with newcomers Ipswich Town 2-2. In their last game away at Fulham, Villa won 1-3.

The last time our two sides met at Villa Park was back in April, Dominic Solanke opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 31st minute. In a minute of first half injury time our old loan player Morgan Rogers equalised for Villa. Two second half goals from Moussa Diaby and Leon Bailey gave Villa all three points.

In our away league games against Aston Villa, AFCB have W 2, D 1, L 3.
In all competitions, AFCB have W 5, D 2, L 6.

Aston Villa Team News
Jaden Philogene is suspended. They have been boosted with both captain John McGinn and Tyronne Mings both returning after a while out with injuries. Otherwise, Villa have only one or two player doubts through injury.

Aston Villa Player To Watch
Ollie Watkins, at Dean Court last season with AFCB 2-1 up, his 90th-minute equaliser stopped a run of wins, we had previously beaten Newcastle United and Sheffield United. After the Villa draw, our side won the next four league games. In our game at Villa Park, he assisted two of his side’s goals. He finished the season with 19 goals and 13 assists. Leading scorer with 5 goals this season and has 2 assists. Then you have Youri Tielemans in great form at the moment, plus Morgan Rogers who we had on loan, has turned into a good player. Another to watch is young ‘super sub’ Jhon Duran who has scored 4 goals coming off the bench.

AFCB Team News
Hopefully a fully fit squad with no new reports of injuries.

AFCB Player To Watch
We need Antoine Semenyo back shooting on target, after misfiring on a few occasions against Arsenal. Lewis Cook had another good game against Arsenal and will be important in midfield against Villa.

The Referee

The man in charge is Andy Madley, he was the referee for three of our games last season. Home against Liverpool and away at Sheffield United and Luton Town.

Matt Stevenson added…

I’ve looked at the last 4 league games for A Villa. These were two home games (Wolves and Man Utd) and two away games (Ipswich and Fulham). A Villa have gained 8 points, and are unbeaten, but was only ahead in xG in one game. A Villa have scored 8 goals and conceded 4 with xG estimating 4.73 goals with 4.03 conceded, so have been overperforming attack-wise, which is unlikely to continue – in the first four games, the xG and goals scored were broadly similar.

Goals Xg.jpg

A Villa has had 5 different goal scorers (Watkins 3, Rogers 2, and singles from Duran, Konsa, and an own goal). Rogers has 2 assists as does Tielemans, with Watkins, Bailey, Ramsey, and Digne with 1 each.

The average positions of the starting line-ups are below. It’s hard to read into these as they are different and Wolves would have looked to counterattack, whereas Man U would have tried to control more of the ball. Bar the Fulham game, the positions are all concentrated in the middle third.

Av Pos.jpg

The following graph compares summary stats of A Villa and AFCB over the last 4 games. A Villa don’t appear to be as good as their league position suggests. AFCB have created many more chances and more big chances, although A Villa have scored more goals. We have conceded fewer attempts, but slightly more big chances. xG is in our favour although xGc is very similar between the teams.

Comparison.png

A Villa have had more possession and a higher pass completion rate over the last 4. A Villa’s games appear to be very set piece based with more than 40% of chances created and 40% of chances conceded being from dead ball situations.

Percentages.png
Your say…

afcdibby wrote…

We have a decent enough record against the Villains. Would love at least a point. – To join the conversation, click here.

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